Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, at 82% probability of holding a diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives by April 30, driven by his inclusion in the recent U.S. delegation to marathon Islamabad talks that collapsed on April 12 without agreement. Vice President J.D. Vance, who led that effort alongside Witkoff and Jared Kushner, follows at 75%, while President Donald Trump trails at 7% amid reluctance for direct presidential involvement. President Trump's April 15 remarks signaling the Iran war is "very close to over" and potential talks resuming "next two days," coupled with diplomats arranging a Pakistan-mediated second round, have elevated odds despite sticking points over Iran's nuclear program and the ongoing U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade. A venue like Pakistan remains likely for any breakthrough before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
$102,435 거래량
2026.04.30
도널드 트럼프
7%
제이디 밴스
75%
마르코 루비오
8%
자레드 쿠슈너
73%
스티브 위트코프
82%
$102,435 거래량
도널드 트럼프
$85,476 거래량
7%
제이디 밴스
$7,428 거래량
75%
마르코 루비오
$5,097 거래량
8%
자레드 쿠슈너
$1,291 거래량
73%
스티브 위트코프
$3,306 거래량
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, at 82% probability of holding a diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives by April 30, driven by his inclusion in the recent U.S. delegation to marathon Islamabad talks that collapsed on April 12 without agreement. Vice President J.D. Vance, who led that effort alongside Witkoff and Jared Kushner, follows at 75%, while President Donald Trump trails at 7% amid reluctance for direct presidential involvement. President Trump's April 15 remarks signaling the Iran war is "very close to over" and potential talks resuming "next two days," coupled with diplomats arranging a Pakistan-mediated second round, have elevated odds despite sticking points over Iran's nuclear program and the ongoing U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade. A venue like Pakistan remains likely for any breakthrough before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
거래량
$102,435종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, at 82% probability of holding a diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives by April 30, driven by his inclusion in the recent U.S. delegation to marathon Islamabad talks that collapsed on April 12 without agreement. Vice President J.D. Vance, who led that effort alongside Witkoff and Jared Kushner, follows at 75%, while President Donald Trump trails at 7% amid reluctance for direct presidential involvement. President Trump's April 15 remarks signaling the Iran war is "very close to over" and potential talks resuming "next two days," coupled with diplomats arranging a Pakistan-mediated second round, have elevated odds despite sticking points over Iran's nuclear program and the ongoing U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade. A venue like Pakistan remains likely for any breakthrough before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$102,435종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, at 82% probability of holding a diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives by April 30, driven by his inclusion in the recent U.S. delegation to marathon Islamabad talks that collapsed on April 12 without agreement. Vice President J.D. Vance, who led that effort alongside Witkoff and Jared Kushner, follows at 75%, while President Donald Trump trails at 7% amid reluctance for direct presidential involvement. President Trump's April 15 remarks signaling the Iran war is "very close to over" and potential talks resuming "next two days," coupled with diplomats arranging a Pakistan-mediated second round, have elevated odds despite sticking points over Iran's nuclear program and the ongoing U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade. A venue like Pakistan remains likely for any breakthrough before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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