Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.4% implied probability for Alberta joining the United States, driven by formidable constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which mandates a clear referendum question, substantial majority support, and federal negotiations for any secession—none of which have materialized. Recent polls from Abacus Data in early March confirm independence remains a minority view, with a "rock solid" majority opposed, while Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly affirmed a "sovereign Alberta within a united Canada," distancing her United Conservative Party government from separatist petitions. A citizen-led independence petition claimed sufficient signatures by late March but faces court challenges from First Nations over treaty rights and a judicial pause on validation. Absent seismic shifts like a federal-provincial crisis, surprise referendum approval, or improbable U.S. congressional action for statehood admission, structural and political realities anchor the lopsided odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.4% implied probability for Alberta joining the United States, driven by formidable constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which mandates a clear referendum question, substantial majority support, and federal negotiations for any secession—none of which have materialized. Recent polls from Abacus Data in early March confirm independence remains a minority view, with a "rock solid" majority opposed, while Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly affirmed a "sovereign Alberta within a united Canada," distancing her United Conservative Party government from separatist petitions. A citizen-led independence petition claimed sufficient signatures by late March but faces court challenges from First Nations over treaty rights and a judicial pause on validation. Absent seismic shifts like a federal-provincial crisis, surprise referendum approval, or improbable U.S. congressional action for statehood admission, structural and political realities anchor the lopsided odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
마켓 개설일: Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
거래량
$2,056종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.4% implied probability for Alberta joining the United States, driven by formidable constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which mandates a clear referendum question, substantial majority support, and federal negotiations for any secession—none of which have materialized. Recent polls from Abacus Data in early March confirm independence remains a minority view, with a "rock solid" majority opposed, while Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly affirmed a "sovereign Alberta within a united Canada," distancing her United Conservative Party government from separatist petitions. A citizen-led independence petition claimed sufficient signatures by late March but faces court challenges from First Nations over treaty rights and a judicial pause on validation. Absent seismic shifts like a federal-provincial crisis, surprise referendum approval, or improbable U.S. congressional action for statehood admission, structural and political realities anchor the lopsided odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
거래량
$2,056종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.4% implied probability for Alberta joining the United States, driven by formidable constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which mandates a clear referendum question, substantial majority support, and federal negotiations for any secession—none of which have materialized. Recent polls from Abacus Data in early March confirm independence remains a minority view, with a "rock solid" majority opposed, while Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly affirmed a "sovereign Alberta within a united Canada," distancing her United Conservative Party government from separatist petitions. A citizen-led independence petition claimed sufficient signatures by late March but faces court challenges from First Nations over treaty rights and a judicial pause on validation. Absent seismic shifts like a federal-provincial crisis, surprise referendum approval, or improbable U.S. congressional action for statehood admission, structural and political realities anchor the lopsided odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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