Following the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries, no U.S. House incumbents lost their races, with figures like Jonathan Jackson in the 1st District and Bill Foster in the 11th advancing decisively amid scant serious primary challenges in safe Democratic seats. This lack of upsets, amid high-profile open-seat contests from retirements such as Robin Kelly's 2nd District bid for Senate, underpins trader consensus implying 60.6% probability for "No," reflecting incumbency advantages and historical base rates where sitting House Democrats rarely fall in primaries. Preliminary results stand firm, but final canvass by the state board of elections, updated as of mid-April, could trigger resolution absent any recounts or disputes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$413 거래량
$413 거래량
2026.03.17
$413 거래량
$413 거래량
2026.03.17
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries, no U.S. House incumbents lost their races, with figures like Jonathan Jackson in the 1st District and Bill Foster in the 11th advancing decisively amid scant serious primary challenges in safe Democratic seats. This lack of upsets, amid high-profile open-seat contests from retirements such as Robin Kelly's 2nd District bid for Senate, underpins trader consensus implying 60.6% probability for "No," reflecting incumbency advantages and historical base rates where sitting House Democrats rarely fall in primaries. Preliminary results stand firm, but final canvass by the state board of elections, updated as of mid-April, could trigger resolution absent any recounts or disputes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
거래량
$413종료일
2026.03.17마켓 개설일
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries, no U.S. House incumbents lost their races, with figures like Jonathan Jackson in the 1st District and Bill Foster in the 11th advancing decisively amid scant serious primary challenges in safe Democratic seats. This lack of upsets, amid high-profile open-seat contests from retirements such as Robin Kelly's 2nd District bid for Senate, underpins trader consensus implying 60.6% probability for "No," reflecting incumbency advantages and historical base rates where sitting House Democrats rarely fall in primaries. Preliminary results stand firm, but final canvass by the state board of elections, updated as of mid-April, could trigger resolution absent any recounts or disputes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$413종료일
2026.03.17마켓 개설일
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries, no U.S. House incumbents lost their races, with figures like Jonathan Jackson in the 1st District and Bill Foster in the 11th advancing decisively amid scant serious primary challenges in safe Democratic seats. This lack of upsets, amid high-profile open-seat contests from retirements such as Robin Kelly's 2nd District bid for Senate, underpins trader consensus implying 60.6% probability for "No," reflecting incumbency advantages and historical base rates where sitting House Democrats rarely fall in primaries. Preliminary results stand firm, but final canvass by the state board of elections, updated as of mid-April, could trigger resolution absent any recounts or disputes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문