Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's refusal to withdraw from the GOP U.S. Senate primary runoff against incumbent John Cornyn before the March 17 deadline has locked both candidates into the May 26 contest, driving trader consensus to 90% against a dropout. Paxton earlier floated a conditional exit tied to Senate GOP leaders scrapping the filibuster for the SAVE Act on voter ID requirements, but no agreement emerged despite President Trump's promised endorsement—which arrived too late to influence the ballot. With procedural barriers now in place and Paxton positioned as an America First challenger emphasizing border security and establishment opposition, markets reflect low odds of reversal absent extraordinary developments like a late scandal or cabinet offer.