The closely contested 53.5% implied probability for António Guterres departing the UN Secretary-General post by December 31, 2026, reflects the scheduled end of his second five-year term alongside ongoing uncertainties in the successor selection. The Security Council has conducted multiple informal straw polls since July 2026 on eight candidates, primarily from Latin America and the Caribbean or Africa, with no clear consensus emerging and permanent members holding veto power. Recent General Assembly sessions and interactive dialogues have advanced the process under formal resolutions, yet divisions persist over frontrunners such as Rebeca Grynspan and Rafael Grossi. U.S. opposition to any temporary extension beyond the hard deadline creates pressure for timely resolution, while risks of prolonged negotiations or procedural delays could affect the transition timeline. Scheduled Security Council recommendations and General Assembly action in the coming months remain key variables that could shift trader assessments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAntónio Guterres out by December 31?
António Guterres out by December 31?
54% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 30, 2026
54% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely contested 53.5% implied probability for António Guterres departing the UN Secretary-General post by December 31, 2026, reflects the scheduled end of his second five-year term alongside ongoing uncertainties in the successor selection. The Security Council has conducted multiple informal straw polls since July 2026 on eight candidates, primarily from Latin America and the Caribbean or Africa, with no clear consensus emerging and permanent members holding veto power. Recent General Assembly sessions and interactive dialogues have advanced the process under formal resolutions, yet divisions persist over frontrunners such as Rebeca Grynspan and Rafael Grossi. U.S. opposition to any temporary extension beyond the hard deadline creates pressure for timely resolution, while risks of prolonged negotiations or procedural delays could affect the transition timeline. Scheduled Security Council recommendations and General Assembly action in the coming months remain key variables that could shift trader assessments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,336Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely contested 53.5% implied probability for António Guterres departing the UN Secretary-General post by December 31, 2026, reflects the scheduled end of his second five-year term alongside ongoing uncertainties in the successor selection. The Security Council has conducted multiple informal straw polls since July 2026 on eight candidates, primarily from Latin America and the Caribbean or Africa, with no clear consensus emerging and permanent members holding veto power. Recent General Assembly sessions and interactive dialogues have advanced the process under formal resolutions, yet divisions persist over frontrunners such as Rebeca Grynspan and Rafael Grossi. U.S. opposition to any temporary extension beyond the hard deadline creates pressure for timely resolution, while risks of prolonged negotiations or procedural delays could affect the transition timeline. Scheduled Security Council recommendations and General Assembly action in the coming months remain key variables that could shift trader assessments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$2,336Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The closely contested 53.5% implied probability for António Guterres departing the UN Secretary-General post by December 31, 2026, reflects the scheduled end of his second five-year term alongside ongoing uncertainties in the successor selection. The Security Council has conducted multiple informal straw polls since July 2026 on eight candidates, primarily from Latin America and the Caribbean or Africa, with no clear consensus emerging and permanent members holding veto power. Recent General Assembly sessions and interactive dialogues have advanced the process under formal resolutions, yet divisions persist over frontrunners such as Rebeca Grynspan and Rafael Grossi. U.S. opposition to any temporary extension beyond the hard deadline creates pressure for timely resolution, while risks of prolonged negotiations or procedural delays could affect the transition timeline. Scheduled Security Council recommendations and General Assembly action in the coming months remain key variables that could shift trader assessments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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