Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease at the May 7, 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting near-certainty after April's headline CPI eased to 4.45% year-on-year from 4.59%—its first decline of the year—despite remaining above the 3% target. This builds on Banxico's surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% in late March amid softening activity and downside inflation risks, aligning with TIIE 28 swap pricing for a further quarter-point reduction to 6.50%. Economists unanimously anticipate easing, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly sticky core inflation or external shocks like Middle East tensions, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBank of Mexico Decision in May
Bank of Mexico Decision in May
Decrease 100.0%
No change <1%
Increase <1%
$293,296 Wol.
$293,296 Wol.
May 7, 2026
Decrease
Yes
No change
No
Increase
No
Decrease 100.0%
No change <1%
Increase <1%
$293,296 Wol.
$293,296 Wol.
May 7, 2026
Decrease
$105,263 Wol.
Yes
No change
$94,482 Wol.
No
Increase
$93,550 Wol.
No
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease at the May 7, 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting near-certainty after April's headline CPI eased to 4.45% year-on-year from 4.59%—its first decline of the year—despite remaining above the 3% target. This builds on Banxico's surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% in late March amid softening activity and downside inflation risks, aligning with TIIE 28 swap pricing for a further quarter-point reduction to 6.50%. Economists unanimously anticipate easing, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly sticky core inflation or external shocks like Middle East tensions, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
Wolumen
$293,296Data zakończenia
May 7, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease at the May 7, 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting near-certainty after April's headline CPI eased to 4.45% year-on-year from 4.59%—its first decline of the year—despite remaining above the 3% target. This builds on Banxico's surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% in late March amid softening activity and downside inflation risks, aligning with TIIE 28 swap pricing for a further quarter-point reduction to 6.50%. Economists unanimously anticipate easing, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly sticky core inflation or external shocks like Middle East tensions, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$293,296Data zakończenia
May 7, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease at the May 7, 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting near-certainty after April's headline CPI eased to 4.45% year-on-year from 4.59%—its first decline of the year—despite remaining above the 3% target. This builds on Banxico's surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% in late March amid softening activity and downside inflation risks, aligning with TIIE 28 swap pricing for a further quarter-point reduction to 6.50%. Economists unanimously anticipate easing, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly sticky core inflation or external shocks like Middle East tensions, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania