**Eileen Gu, the U.S.-born freestyle skier who competes for China, acquired American citizenship at birth under the Fourteenth Amendment.** U.S. law makes revocation of birthright citizenship rare and requires formal legal action, typically limited to cases of naturalization fraud, certain criminal convictions, or voluntary renunciation—none of which apply here based on public records or proceedings. No U.S. government agency has initiated or signaled any denaturalization process, and her name has not appeared on expatriation lists. The market's 95.5% probability for "No" reflects this high legal threshold and the absence of any catalyst such as new charges, congressional action, or executive measures through mid-2026. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include unforeseen legal findings of citizenship fraud, major policy shifts altering expatriation rules before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, or undisclosed developments tied to her dual-nationality status under Chinese law. Trader consensus aligns with established precedents protecting birthright citizenship absent extraordinary circumstances.