Traders price an 86% chance Evo Morales avoids arrest by May 31, reflecting his continued freedom in Bolivia's Chapare stronghold despite longstanding arrest warrants for human trafficking and sedition tied to 2019 unrest. Morales reemerged publicly there in late February 2026 after a seven-week unexplained absence, evading capture amid loyalist blockades and intra-MAS party tensions with President Luis Arce's administration. Recent DEA operations in Bolivia, including the March arrest of narco-trafficker Sebastián Marset, have not extended to Morales, underscoring logistical and political barriers to executing warrants in his coca-producer base before the deadline. Escalation would risk violent clashes ahead of potential 2026 election dynamics.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoEvo Morales arrested by May 31
Evo Morales arrested by May 31
NOWE
NOWE
May 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders price an 86% chance Evo Morales avoids arrest by May 31, reflecting his continued freedom in Bolivia's Chapare stronghold despite longstanding arrest warrants for human trafficking and sedition tied to 2019 unrest. Morales reemerged publicly there in late February 2026 after a seven-week unexplained absence, evading capture amid loyalist blockades and intra-MAS party tensions with President Luis Arce's administration. Recent DEA operations in Bolivia, including the March arrest of narco-trafficker Sebastián Marset, have not extended to Morales, underscoring logistical and political barriers to executing warrants in his coca-producer base before the deadline. Escalation would risk violent clashes ahead of potential 2026 election dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$9,162Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders price an 86% chance Evo Morales avoids arrest by May 31, reflecting his continued freedom in Bolivia's Chapare stronghold despite longstanding arrest warrants for human trafficking and sedition tied to 2019 unrest. Morales reemerged publicly there in late February 2026 after a seven-week unexplained absence, evading capture amid loyalist blockades and intra-MAS party tensions with President Luis Arce's administration. Recent DEA operations in Bolivia, including the March arrest of narco-trafficker Sebastián Marset, have not extended to Morales, underscoring logistical and political barriers to executing warrants in his coca-producer base before the deadline. Escalation would risk violent clashes ahead of potential 2026 election dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$9,162Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders price an 86% chance Evo Morales avoids arrest by May 31, reflecting his continued freedom in Bolivia's Chapare stronghold despite longstanding arrest warrants for human trafficking and sedition tied to 2019 unrest. Morales reemerged publicly there in late February 2026 after a seven-week unexplained absence, evading capture amid loyalist blockades and intra-MAS party tensions with President Luis Arce's administration. Recent DEA operations in Bolivia, including the March arrest of narco-trafficker Sebastián Marset, have not extended to Morales, underscoring logistical and political barriers to executing warrants in his coca-producer base before the deadline. Escalation would risk violent clashes ahead of potential 2026 election dynamics.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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