Recent Israeli polling averages project Likud at 20–23 Knesset seats in the October 27, 2026 election, well below its current 32-seat holding after the prior term and New Hope merger. Persistent surveys from multiple houses show the party trailing challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar list amid voter dissatisfaction with the government’s security record since the 2023 Hamas attacks and subsequent operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Netanyahu’s bloc as a whole hovers near 52–54 seats, short of a majority, while internal right-wing fragmentation and competition from newer lists further compress Likud’s projected share. Traders have priced the implied probability of a seat loss at 92.5% to reflect this sustained gap between current representation and forecast results.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano92% szansa
$18,444 Wol.
$18,444 Wol.
Oct 27, 2026
92% szansa
$18,444 Wol.
$18,444 Wol.
Oct 27, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent Israeli polling averages project Likud at 20–23 Knesset seats in the October 27, 2026 election, well below its current 32-seat holding after the prior term and New Hope merger. Persistent surveys from multiple houses show the party trailing challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar list amid voter dissatisfaction with the government’s security record since the 2023 Hamas attacks and subsequent operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Netanyahu’s bloc as a whole hovers near 52–54 seats, short of a majority, while internal right-wing fragmentation and competition from newer lists further compress Likud’s projected share. Traders have priced the implied probability of a seat loss at 92.5% to reflect this sustained gap between current representation and forecast results.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Wolumen
$18,444Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent Israeli polling averages project Likud at 20–23 Knesset seats in the October 27, 2026 election, well below its current 32-seat holding after the prior term and New Hope merger. Persistent surveys from multiple houses show the party trailing challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar list amid voter dissatisfaction with the government’s security record since the 2023 Hamas attacks and subsequent operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Netanyahu’s bloc as a whole hovers near 52–54 seats, short of a majority, while internal right-wing fragmentation and competition from newer lists further compress Likud’s projected share. Traders have priced the implied probability of a seat loss at 92.5% to reflect this sustained gap between current representation and forecast results.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Wolumen
$18,444Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Recent Israeli polling averages project Likud at 20–23 Knesset seats in the October 27, 2026 election, well below its current 32-seat holding after the prior term and New Hope merger. Persistent surveys from multiple houses show the party trailing challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar list amid voter dissatisfaction with the government’s security record since the 2023 Hamas attacks and subsequent operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Netanyahu’s bloc as a whole hovers near 52–54 seats, short of a majority, while internal right-wing fragmentation and competition from newer lists further compress Likud’s projected share. Traders have priced the implied probability of a seat loss at 92.5% to reflect this sustained gap between current representation and forecast results.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania