Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, underscoring the cartel's enduring cohesion despite the United Arab Emirates' high-profile exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1. The UAE's April 28 announcement, amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and the Iran conflict, allows independent production maximization but has not sparked a cascade, as core members like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, and Kuwait reaffirmed voluntary production adjustments at the April 5 OPEC+ meeting—increasing quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May to support market stability. Surging oil prices above $100 per barrel reinforce coordination incentives, with trader sentiment viewing full breakup as improbable barring further major defections; upcoming June ministerial monitoring remains a key catalyst.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, underscoring the cartel's enduring cohesion despite the United Arab Emirates' high-profile exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1. The UAE's April 28 announcement, amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and the Iran conflict, allows independent production maximization but has not sparked a cascade, as core members like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, and Kuwait reaffirmed voluntary production adjustments at the April 5 OPEC+ meeting—increasing quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May to support market stability. Surging oil prices above $100 per barrel reinforce coordination incentives, with trader sentiment viewing full breakup as improbable barring further major defections; upcoming June ministerial monitoring remains a key catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$8,451Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, underscoring the cartel's enduring cohesion despite the United Arab Emirates' high-profile exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1. The UAE's April 28 announcement, amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and the Iran conflict, allows independent production maximization but has not sparked a cascade, as core members like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, and Kuwait reaffirmed voluntary production adjustments at the April 5 OPEC+ meeting—increasing quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May to support market stability. Surging oil prices above $100 per barrel reinforce coordination incentives, with trader sentiment viewing full breakup as improbable barring further major defections; upcoming June ministerial monitoring remains a key catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$8,451Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, underscoring the cartel's enduring cohesion despite the United Arab Emirates' high-profile exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1. The UAE's April 28 announcement, amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and the Iran conflict, allows independent production maximization but has not sparked a cascade, as core members like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, and Kuwait reaffirmed voluntary production adjustments at the April 5 OPEC+ meeting—increasing quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May to support market stability. Surging oil prices above $100 per barrel reinforce coordination incentives, with trader sentiment viewing full breakup as improbable barring further major defections; upcoming June ministerial monitoring remains a key catalyst.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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