Traders assign a 96.9% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, reflecting the organization's demonstrated resilience following the UAE's exit effective May 1, 2026, after nearly six decades of membership. That departure, driven by quota disputes and capacity expansion goals amid the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, reduced OPEC to 11 members yet prompted continued OPEC+ coordination on output adjustments and production rollbacks through September. Saudi Arabia and remaining core producers have sustained regular ministerial meetings and policy statements into late 2026, consistent with historical patterns where prior exits by Qatar, Ecuador, and Angola failed to trigger dissolution. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include accelerated withdrawals by major producers such as Iraq over quota disagreements or an unforeseen multilateral agreement to disband, though neither has materialized in the current cycle.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
3% szansa
$34,759 Wol.
$34,759 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% szansa
$34,759 Wol.
$34,759 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 96.9% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, reflecting the organization's demonstrated resilience following the UAE's exit effective May 1, 2026, after nearly six decades of membership. That departure, driven by quota disputes and capacity expansion goals amid the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, reduced OPEC to 11 members yet prompted continued OPEC+ coordination on output adjustments and production rollbacks through September. Saudi Arabia and remaining core producers have sustained regular ministerial meetings and policy statements into late 2026, consistent with historical patterns where prior exits by Qatar, Ecuador, and Angola failed to trigger dissolution. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include accelerated withdrawals by major producers such as Iraq over quota disagreements or an unforeseen multilateral agreement to disband, though neither has materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$34,759Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 96.9% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, reflecting the organization's demonstrated resilience following the UAE's exit effective May 1, 2026, after nearly six decades of membership. That departure, driven by quota disputes and capacity expansion goals amid the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, reduced OPEC to 11 members yet prompted continued OPEC+ coordination on output adjustments and production rollbacks through September. Saudi Arabia and remaining core producers have sustained regular ministerial meetings and policy statements into late 2026, consistent with historical patterns where prior exits by Qatar, Ecuador, and Angola failed to trigger dissolution. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include accelerated withdrawals by major producers such as Iraq over quota disagreements or an unforeseen multilateral agreement to disband, though neither has materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$34,759Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.9% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, reflecting the organization's demonstrated resilience following the UAE's exit effective May 1, 2026, after nearly six decades of membership. That departure, driven by quota disputes and capacity expansion goals amid the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, reduced OPEC to 11 members yet prompted continued OPEC+ coordination on output adjustments and production rollbacks through September. Saudi Arabia and remaining core producers have sustained regular ministerial meetings and policy statements into late 2026, consistent with historical patterns where prior exits by Qatar, Ecuador, and Angola failed to trigger dissolution. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include accelerated withdrawals by major producers such as Iraq over quota disagreements or an unforeseen multilateral agreement to disband, though neither has materialized in the current cycle.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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