The latest Social Security Trustees Report, released in June 2026, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, after which incoming revenue would cover only 78 percent of scheduled retirement benefits. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, paying 83 percent of benefits thereafter. The worsened outlook stems mainly from lower fertility and immigration assumptions plus reduced tax revenue on benefits under 2025 legislation. These official projections anchor trader views on insolvency timing, with Congress facing pressure to enact reforms before reserves run dry and automatic cuts begin. No major policy changes have occurred since the report.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSocial Security Insolvent by...?
Social Security Insolvent by...?
NOWE
Dec 31, 2028
December 31, 2027
11%
December 31, 2028
17%
$394 Wol.
December 31, 2027
$349 Wol.
11%
December 31, 2028
$45 Wol.
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The latest Social Security Trustees Report, released in June 2026, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, after which incoming revenue would cover only 78 percent of scheduled retirement benefits. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, paying 83 percent of benefits thereafter. The worsened outlook stems mainly from lower fertility and immigration assumptions plus reduced tax revenue on benefits under 2025 legislation. These official projections anchor trader views on insolvency timing, with Congress facing pressure to enact reforms before reserves run dry and automatic cuts begin. No major policy changes have occurred since the report.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET
Wolumen
$394Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2029Rynek otwarty
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The latest Social Security Trustees Report, released in June 2026, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, after which incoming revenue would cover only 78 percent of scheduled retirement benefits. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, paying 83 percent of benefits thereafter. The worsened outlook stems mainly from lower fertility and immigration assumptions plus reduced tax revenue on benefits under 2025 legislation. These official projections anchor trader views on insolvency timing, with Congress facing pressure to enact reforms before reserves run dry and automatic cuts begin. No major policy changes have occurred since the report.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$394Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2029Rynek otwarty
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The latest Social Security Trustees Report, released in June 2026, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, after which incoming revenue would cover only 78 percent of scheduled retirement benefits. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, paying 83 percent of benefits thereafter. The worsened outlook stems mainly from lower fertility and immigration assumptions plus reduced tax revenue on benefits under 2025 legislation. These official projections anchor trader views on insolvency timing, with Congress facing pressure to enact reforms before reserves run dry and automatic cuts begin. No major policy changes have occurred since the report.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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