US-Mexico law enforcement cooperation, including extraditions and joint operations targeting Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartel figures, continues to shape expectations for 2026 arrests. Early-year indictments and detentions of mid-level Sinaloa plaza bosses, combined with DEA seizures exceeding millions of fentanyl pills and thousands of arrests in multi-agency sweeps, reflect sustained pressure on trafficking networks. February unrest involving cartel-linked blockades and violence highlighted internal disruptions, while July developments—including a leadership transition in the Jalisco cartel following the reported death of a top figure and probes into prior high-profile captures—underscore shifting hierarchies that could prompt further enforcement actions. Traders weigh these enforcement patterns against cartel resilience and diplomatic frictions when assessing specific individuals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
$143,082 Wol.
Feb 28, 2026
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
60%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
50%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
50%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
49%
$143,082 Wol.
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
$5,906 Wol.
60%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
$5,848 Wol.
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
$60,997 Wol.
50%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
$4,874 Wol.
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
$58,651 Wol.
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
$200 Wol.
50%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
$658 Wol.
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Mexico law enforcement cooperation, including extraditions and joint operations targeting Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartel figures, continues to shape expectations for 2026 arrests. Early-year indictments and detentions of mid-level Sinaloa plaza bosses, combined with DEA seizures exceeding millions of fentanyl pills and thousands of arrests in multi-agency sweeps, reflect sustained pressure on trafficking networks. February unrest involving cartel-linked blockades and violence highlighted internal disruptions, while July developments—including a leadership transition in the Jalisco cartel following the reported death of a top figure and probes into prior high-profile captures—underscore shifting hierarchies that could prompt further enforcement actions. Traders weigh these enforcement patterns against cartel resilience and diplomatic frictions when assessing specific individuals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$143,082Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Mexico law enforcement cooperation, including extraditions and joint operations targeting Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartel figures, continues to shape expectations for 2026 arrests. Early-year indictments and detentions of mid-level Sinaloa plaza bosses, combined with DEA seizures exceeding millions of fentanyl pills and thousands of arrests in multi-agency sweeps, reflect sustained pressure on trafficking networks. February unrest involving cartel-linked blockades and violence highlighted internal disruptions, while July developments—including a leadership transition in the Jalisco cartel following the reported death of a top figure and probes into prior high-profile captures—underscore shifting hierarchies that could prompt further enforcement actions. Traders weigh these enforcement patterns against cartel resilience and diplomatic frictions when assessing specific individuals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$143,082Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Mexico law enforcement cooperation, including extraditions and joint operations targeting Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartel figures, continues to shape expectations for 2026 arrests. Early-year indictments and detentions of mid-level Sinaloa plaza bosses, combined with DEA seizures exceeding millions of fentanyl pills and thousands of arrests in multi-agency sweeps, reflect sustained pressure on trafficking networks. February unrest involving cartel-linked blockades and violence highlighted internal disruptions, while July developments—including a leadership transition in the Jalisco cartel following the reported death of a top figure and probes into prior high-profile captures—underscore shifting hierarchies that could prompt further enforcement actions. Traders weigh these enforcement patterns against cartel resilience and diplomatic frictions when assessing specific individuals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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