US and Mexican authorities have intensified targeting of Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG factions in 2026 through extraditions, narco-terrorism indictments, and military operations, with DEA and State Department rewards reaching $5–25 million for figures such as remaining Guzmán Salazar brothers and CJNG commanders. Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”) was captured by Mexican Navy forces in April following earlier high-profile transfers of cartel members to US custody. Ongoing bounties and investigations into plaza bosses and logistics operators sustain trader focus on specific individuals likely to face arrest or extradition before year-end, while structural barriers like safe havens and internal cartel succession limit certainty for lower-probability names.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
$143,093 Wol.
Feb 28, 2026
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
77%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
49%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
49%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
46%
$143,093 Wol.
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
$5,906 Wol.
77%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
$5,848 Wol.
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
$60,997 Wol.
49%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
$4,874 Wol.
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
$58,662 Wol.
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
$200 Wol.
49%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
$658 Wol.
46%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US and Mexican authorities have intensified targeting of Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG factions in 2026 through extraditions, narco-terrorism indictments, and military operations, with DEA and State Department rewards reaching $5–25 million for figures such as remaining Guzmán Salazar brothers and CJNG commanders. Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”) was captured by Mexican Navy forces in April following earlier high-profile transfers of cartel members to US custody. Ongoing bounties and investigations into plaza bosses and logistics operators sustain trader focus on specific individuals likely to face arrest or extradition before year-end, while structural barriers like safe havens and internal cartel succession limit certainty for lower-probability names.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$143,093Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US and Mexican authorities have intensified targeting of Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG factions in 2026 through extraditions, narco-terrorism indictments, and military operations, with DEA and State Department rewards reaching $5–25 million for figures such as remaining Guzmán Salazar brothers and CJNG commanders. Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”) was captured by Mexican Navy forces in April following earlier high-profile transfers of cartel members to US custody. Ongoing bounties and investigations into plaza bosses and logistics operators sustain trader focus on specific individuals likely to face arrest or extradition before year-end, while structural barriers like safe havens and internal cartel succession limit certainty for lower-probability names.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$143,093Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Mexican authorities have intensified targeting of Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG factions in 2026 through extraditions, narco-terrorism indictments, and military operations, with DEA and State Department rewards reaching $5–25 million for figures such as remaining Guzmán Salazar brothers and CJNG commanders. Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”) was captured by Mexican Navy forces in April following earlier high-profile transfers of cartel members to US custody. Ongoing bounties and investigations into plaza bosses and logistics operators sustain trader focus on specific individuals likely to face arrest or extradition before year-end, while structural barriers like safe havens and internal cartel succession limit certainty for lower-probability names.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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