FIFA's repeated confirmation that Iran will compete in the 2026 World Cup as originally qualified underpins the market's strong lean toward no replacement. The Iranian federation secured approval for a base camp shift to Tijuana, Mexico, addressing visa and security concerns tied to Middle East tensions while preserving the team's group-stage schedule in the United States. Italian officials across government and soccer bodies swiftly rejected any substitution proposal, stressing that qualification must occur on the pitch and labeling external suggestions inappropriate. With the tournament less than two weeks away and no formal withdrawal or ban enacted, traders view these developments as decisive barriers to change. Unlikely scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an abrupt Iranian pullout or a last-minute FIFA reversal at the upcoming congress.