**The primary driver behind the 87.5% market-implied probability of “No” is Argentina’s still-developing citizenship-by-investment program, which remains in the planning stage with no confirmed launch, investment thresholds, or approval timelines as of September 2026.** Peter Thiel, Palantir co-founder and tech investor, has relocated temporarily to Buenos Aires, purchased property, met repeatedly with President Javier Milei, and acquired a stake in an Argentine energy firm, reflecting alignment with Milei’s libertarian, pro-investment stance that could support data-center and tech infrastructure goals. However, official statements deny any expedited offer or formal application, standard residency or bureaucratic requirements have not been met, and legislative or regulatory delays continue to limit fast-track options. Traders see limited scope for a last-minute executive decree or accelerated rollout before year-end.