OpenAI’s recent release of GPT-5.5 in late April 2026, followed by the GPT-5.5 Instant update in May, has reinforced trader expectations for continued frontier model iterations amid competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google. These incremental launches emphasize agentic workflows, multi-step reasoning, and coding capabilities, aligning with OpenAI’s pattern of frequent targeted updates rather than infrequent major leaps. Historical release cadence since GPT-5 in August 2025, combined with enterprise demand for reliable performance and regulatory focus on safety frameworks, sustains momentum toward additional successors. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Q3 2026 flagship releases and developer conferences that could clarify timelines or introduce new capability thresholds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?
$19,238 Wol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
1%
June 30
88%
September 30
97%
$19,238 Wol.
May 31
$5,134 Wol.
1%
June 30
$3,609 Wol.
88%
September 30
$10,494 Wol.
97%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s recent release of GPT-5.5 in late April 2026, followed by the GPT-5.5 Instant update in May, has reinforced trader expectations for continued frontier model iterations amid competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google. These incremental launches emphasize agentic workflows, multi-step reasoning, and coding capabilities, aligning with OpenAI’s pattern of frequent targeted updates rather than infrequent major leaps. Historical release cadence since GPT-5 in August 2025, combined with enterprise demand for reliable performance and regulatory focus on safety frameworks, sustains momentum toward additional successors. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Q3 2026 flagship releases and developer conferences that could clarify timelines or introduce new capability thresholds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: May 3, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
Wolumen
$19,238Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 3, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s recent release of GPT-5.5 in late April 2026, followed by the GPT-5.5 Instant update in May, has reinforced trader expectations for continued frontier model iterations amid competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google. These incremental launches emphasize agentic workflows, multi-step reasoning, and coding capabilities, aligning with OpenAI’s pattern of frequent targeted updates rather than infrequent major leaps. Historical release cadence since GPT-5 in August 2025, combined with enterprise demand for reliable performance and regulatory focus on safety frameworks, sustains momentum toward additional successors. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Q3 2026 flagship releases and developer conferences that could clarify timelines or introduce new capability thresholds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$19,238Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 3, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s recent release of GPT-5.5 in late April 2026, followed by the GPT-5.5 Instant update in May, has reinforced trader expectations for continued frontier model iterations amid competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google. These incremental launches emphasize agentic workflows, multi-step reasoning, and coding capabilities, aligning with OpenAI’s pattern of frequent targeted updates rather than infrequent major leaps. Historical release cadence since GPT-5 in August 2025, combined with enterprise demand for reliable performance and regulatory focus on safety frameworks, sustains momentum toward additional successors. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Q3 2026 flagship releases and developer conferences that could clarify timelines or introduce new capability thresholds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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