Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven primarily by the company's abrupt March 2026 shutdown of its Sora AI video-sharing app amid deepfake concerns, low user retention, and unsustainable compute costs. Early-year rumors of a new X-like platform using biometric verification to exclude bots generated brief buzz but yielded no official announcements, prototypes, or developer previews. OpenAI's priorities remain squarely on artificial intelligence infrastructure scaling—with workforce expansion to 8,000 employees, massive training investments, and policy pushes for AI-driven economic restructuring—rather than social media ventures, especially post-Sora's failure. Key catalysts ahead include potential Q4 earnings previews or developer conferences, though traders see slim odds of a pivot before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven primarily by the company's abrupt March 2026 shutdown of its Sora AI video-sharing app amid deepfake concerns, low user retention, and unsustainable compute costs. Early-year rumors of a new X-like platform using biometric verification to exclude bots generated brief buzz but yielded no official announcements, prototypes, or developer previews. OpenAI's priorities remain squarely on artificial intelligence infrastructure scaling—with workforce expansion to 8,000 employees, massive training investments, and policy pushes for AI-driven economic restructuring—rather than social media ventures, especially post-Sora's failure. Key catalysts ahead include potential Q4 earnings previews or developer conferences, though traders see slim odds of a pivot before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Wolumen
$5,228Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven primarily by the company's abrupt March 2026 shutdown of its Sora AI video-sharing app amid deepfake concerns, low user retention, and unsustainable compute costs. Early-year rumors of a new X-like platform using biometric verification to exclude bots generated brief buzz but yielded no official announcements, prototypes, or developer previews. OpenAI's priorities remain squarely on artificial intelligence infrastructure scaling—with workforce expansion to 8,000 employees, massive training investments, and policy pushes for AI-driven economic restructuring—rather than social media ventures, especially post-Sora's failure. Key catalysts ahead include potential Q4 earnings previews or developer conferences, though traders see slim odds of a pivot before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$5,228Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven primarily by the company's abrupt March 2026 shutdown of its Sora AI video-sharing app amid deepfake concerns, low user retention, and unsustainable compute costs. Early-year rumors of a new X-like platform using biometric verification to exclude bots generated brief buzz but yielded no official announcements, prototypes, or developer previews. OpenAI's priorities remain squarely on artificial intelligence infrastructure scaling—with workforce expansion to 8,000 employees, massive training investments, and policy pushes for AI-driven economic restructuring—rather than social media ventures, especially post-Sora's failure. Key catalysts ahead include potential Q4 earnings previews or developer conferences, though traders see slim odds of a pivot before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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