Spain edges France as the slim trader consensus favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 17.2% implied probability following the qualifiers' conclusion on March 31, with both nations clustered atop the April 1 FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Rankings—France reclaiming No. 1 at 1877 points ahead of Spain's 1876—after strong March friendlies like Spain's 3-0 rout of Serbia. The top five outcomes remain tightly bunched under 12%, reflecting Europe's squad depth and golden generations peaking simultaneously, Spain's Euro 2024 triumph, France's consistent knockout prowess, England's star-laden attack despite recent draws, and South American qualifiers' toll on Argentina and Brazil amid aging cores like Messi's. No dominant force emerges in the expanded 48-team format, keeping paths open through group stage and playoffs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEspanha 17.1%
França 16.4%
Inglaterra 11.0%
Argentina 8.8%
$661,449,886 Vol.
$661,449,886 Vol.

Espanha
17%

França
16%

Inglaterra
11%

Argentina
9%

Brasil
9%

Portugal
7%

Alemanha
5%

Holanda
3%

Noruega
2%

Japão
2%

Bélgica
2%

Colômbia
2%

Marrocos
2%

EUA
1%

México
1%

Suíça
1%

Uruguai
1%

Croácia
1%

Turquia
1%

Equador
1%

Senegal
1%

Canadá
1%

Áustria
1%

Suécia
1%

Paraguai
<1%

Costa do Marfim
<1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Bósnia-Herzegovina
<1%

Escócia
<1%

Tchéquia
<1%

Egito
<1%

Irã
<1%

Gana
<1%

Argélia
<1%

Tunísia
<1%

Panamá
<1%

África do Sul
<1%

RD Congo
<1%

Austrália
<1%

Arábia Saudita
<1%

Nova Zelândia
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordânia
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Uzbequistão
<1%

Iraque
<1%

Cabo Verde
<1%

Catar
<1%
Espanha 17.1%
França 16.4%
Inglaterra 11.0%
Argentina 8.8%
$661,449,886 Vol.
$661,449,886 Vol.

Espanha
17%

França
16%

Inglaterra
11%

Argentina
9%

Brasil
9%

Portugal
7%

Alemanha
5%

Holanda
3%

Noruega
2%

Japão
2%

Bélgica
2%

Colômbia
2%

Marrocos
2%

EUA
1%

México
1%

Suíça
1%

Uruguai
1%

Croácia
1%

Turquia
1%

Equador
1%

Senegal
1%

Canadá
1%

Áustria
1%

Suécia
1%

Paraguai
<1%

Costa do Marfim
<1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Bósnia-Herzegovina
<1%

Escócia
<1%

Tchéquia
<1%

Egito
<1%

Irã
<1%

Gana
<1%

Argélia
<1%

Tunísia
<1%

Panamá
<1%

África do Sul
<1%

RD Congo
<1%

Austrália
<1%

Arábia Saudita
<1%

Nova Zelândia
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordânia
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Uzbequistão
<1%

Iraque
<1%

Cabo Verde
<1%

Catar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain edges France as the slim trader consensus favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 17.2% implied probability following the qualifiers' conclusion on March 31, with both nations clustered atop the April 1 FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Rankings—France reclaiming No. 1 at 1877 points ahead of Spain's 1876—after strong March friendlies like Spain's 3-0 rout of Serbia. The top five outcomes remain tightly bunched under 12%, reflecting Europe's squad depth and golden generations peaking simultaneously, Spain's Euro 2024 triumph, France's consistent knockout prowess, England's star-laden attack despite recent draws, and South American qualifiers' toll on Argentina and Brazil amid aging cores like Messi's. No dominant force emerges in the expanded 48-team format, keeping paths open through group stage and playoffs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions