Skip to main content
icon for Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026

Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026

icon for Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026

Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026

Harry Kane 27.0%

Ousmane Dembélé 18.0%

Lamine Yamal 15%

Vitinha 11.3%

Polymarket

$3,932,178 Vol.

Harry Kane 27.0%

Ousmane Dembélé 18.0%

Lamine Yamal 15%

Vitinha 11.3%

Polymarket

$3,932,178 Vol.

Harry Kane

$732,198 Vol.

27%

Ousmane Dembélé

$494,622 Vol.

18%

Lamine Yamal

$92,360 Vol.

15%

Vitinha

$70,019 Vol.

11%

Kylian Mbappé

$151,265 Vol.

10%

Bruno Fernandes

$52,686 Vol.

5%

Michael Olise

$99,738 Vol.

5%

Declan Rice

$76,267 Vol.

2%

Cristiano Ronaldo

$66,534 Vol.

2%

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

$82,600 Vol.

2%

Lautaro Martinez

$50,578 Vol.

1%

Erling Haaland

$276,145 Vol.

1%

Raphinha

$44,777 Vol.

1%

Vinícius Júnior

$479,437 Vol.

1%

Achraf Hakimi

$33,660 Vol.

1%

Pedri

$289,692 Vol.

1%

Desejo Doue

$40,093 Vol.

1%

Luis Diaz

$45,672 Vol.

<1%

Julian Alvarez

$36,358 Vol.

<1%

Mohamed Salah

$280,422 Vol.

<1%

Cole Palmer

$79,823 Vol.

<1%

Federico Valverde

$44,380 Vol.

<1%

Jude Bellingham

$242,644 Vol.

<1%

Dominik Szoboszlai

$71,893 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 27% implied probability due to his record-breaking 65-goal season for Bayern Munich, including Bundesliga and domestic cup success that highlight his consistency as a striker. Ousmane Dembélé sits at 18% on the strength of PSG's multiple trophies and his status as defending champion, while Lamine Yamal's 15% reflects Barcelona's attacking output and his rapid rise. Vitinha and Kylian Mbappé follow amid strong club campaigns, but the wide-open field stems from the decisive impact expected from 2026 World Cup performances, where England, France, and other contenders can shift the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Volume
$3,932,178
Data de Término
31 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 27% implied probability due to his record-breaking 65-goal season for Bayern Munich, including Bundesliga and domestic cup success that highlight his consistency as a striker. Ousmane Dembélé sits at 18% on the strength of PSG's multiple trophies and his status as defending champion, while Lamine Yamal's 15% reflects Barcelona's attacking output and his rapid rise. Vitinha and Kylian Mbappé follow amid strong club campaigns, but the wide-open field stems from the decisive impact expected from 2026 World Cup performances, where England, France, and other contenders can shift the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Volume
$3,932,178
Data de Término
31 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Harry Kane" at 27%, followed by "Ousmane Dembélé" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026" has generated $3.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026" is "Harry Kane" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ousmane Dembélé" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.