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Desporto·Futebol

Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026

icon for Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026
Desporto·Futebol

Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026

Harry Kane 53.4%

Lamine Yamal 20.8%

Kylian Mbappé 9.7%

Rodri 9%

Polymarket

$24,478,041 Vol.

Harry Kane 53.4%

Lamine Yamal 20.8%

Kylian Mbappé 9.7%

Rodri 9%

Polymarket

$24,478,041 Vol.

Harry Kane

$2,771,307 Vol.

53%

Lamine Yamal

$1,599,423 Vol.

21%

Kylian Mbappé

$1,377,661 Vol.

10%

Rodri

$714,067 Vol.

9%

Lionel Messi

$1,692,908 Vol.

4%

Fabian Ruiz

$713,986 Vol.

1%

Ousmane Dembélé

$1,469,950 Vol.

1%

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

$781,301 Vol.

1%

Pau Cubarsi

$617,453 Vol.

1%

Erling Haaland

$998,300 Vol.

<1%

Jude Bellingham

$915,655 Vol.

<1%

Michael Olise

$840,438 Vol.

<1%

Mohamed Salah

$1,017,830 Vol.

<1%

Vinícius Júnior

$1,058,021 Vol.

<1%

Pedri

$814,742 Vol.

<1%

Cole Palmer

$663,841 Vol.

<1%

Declan Rice

$536,025 Vol.

<1%

Vitinha

$490,956 Vol.

<1%

Julian Alvarez

$683,157 Vol.

<1%

Raphinha

$652,405 Vol.

<1%

Bruno Fernandes

$673,628 Vol.

<1%

Lautaro Martinez

$472,712 Vol.

<1%

Cristiano Ronaldo

$397,269 Vol.

<1%

Federico Valverde

$436,897 Vol.

<1%

Desejo Doue

$589,433 Vol.

<1%

Achraf Hakimi

$609,699 Vol.

<1%

Luis Diaz

$422,825 Vol.

<1%

Enzo Fernandez

$65,053 Vol.

<1%

Dominik Szoboszlai

$167,259 Vol.

<1%

Rodrygo

$87,103 Vol.

<1%

Bukayo Saka

$146,735 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 53.3% implied probability after a record goal-scoring campaign with Bayern Munich that delivered multiple domestic titles and standout World Cup contributions for England. Lamine Yamal sits at 20.8% on the back of Spain's World Cup triumph and consistent Barcelona output, while Kylian Mbappé and Rodri trail further behind amid strong but less dominant club and international showings. Recent World Cup results have driven the latest shifts in trader consensus, elevating players with major tournament impact and silverware over pure statistical volume from the club season. Messi has also gained ground from Argentina performances, though the field remains spread across established stars and emerging talents.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Volume
$24,478,041
Data de Término
31 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 53.3% implied probability after a record goal-scoring campaign with Bayern Munich that delivered multiple domestic titles and standout World Cup contributions for England. Lamine Yamal sits at 20.8% on the back of Spain's World Cup triumph and consistent Barcelona output, while Kylian Mbappé and Rodri trail further behind amid strong but less dominant club and international showings. Recent World Cup results have driven the latest shifts in trader consensus, elevating players with major tournament impact and silverware over pure statistical volume from the club season. Messi has also gained ground from Argentina performances, though the field remains spread across established stars and emerging talents.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Volume
$24,478,041
Data de Término
31 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 31 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Harry Kane" at 53%, followed by "Lamine Yamal" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026" has generated $24.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026," browse the 31 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026" is "Harry Kane" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lamine Yamal" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.