Skip to main content
icon for Eleição do Estado de Berlim: CDU acima/abaixo de 20%?
Mundo·Berlim

Eleição do Estado de Berlim: CDU acima/abaixo de 20%?

icon for Eleição do Estado de Berlim: CDU acima/abaixo de 20%?
Mundo·Berlim

Eleição do Estado de Berlim: CDU acima/abaixo de 20%?

Acima

44% chance
Polymarket
NOVO

Acima

44% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the CDU near 19-20% in the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting stabilization after incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner withdrew his candidacy in July amid criticism over the city’s prolonged power outage and related governance issues. Multiple surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap show the party trailing or tied with Die Linke while competing in a tight five-party contest that includes the AfD, Greens, and SPD. This fragmented support base and the loss of the prominent state leader have kept CDU figures at or below the 20% threshold in the latest readings, aligning with the modest trader consensus favoring an under outcome. Scheduled debates and final campaign weeks remain key variables that could still shift the result.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$558
Data de Término
20 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the CDU near 19-20% in the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting stabilization after incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner withdrew his candidacy in July amid criticism over the city’s prolonged power outage and related governance issues. Multiple surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap show the party trailing or tied with Die Linke while competing in a tight five-party contest that includes the AfD, Greens, and SPD. This fragmented support base and the loss of the prominent state leader have kept CDU figures at or below the 20% threshold in the latest readings, aligning with the modest trader consensus favoring an under outcome. Scheduled debates and final campaign weeks remain key variables that could still shift the result.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$558
Data de Término
20 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Relacionado

icon for A CDU ganhará entre 20% e 23% de todos os segundos votos válidos?

A CDU ganhará entre 20% e 23% de todos os segundos votos válidos?

46%
Sim
icon for Eleição Estadual de Berlim: AfD Acima/Abaixo de 17%?

Eleição Estadual de Berlim: AfD Acima/Abaixo de 17%?

64%
Acima
icon for Eleições estaduais de Berlim: Mais votos para CDU ou AfD?

Eleições estaduais de Berlim: Mais votos para CDU ou AfD?

74%
CDU

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição do Estado de Berlim: CDU acima/abaixo de 20%?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eleições Estaduais de Berlim: CDU Acima/Abaixo de 20%?" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição do Estado de Berlim: CDU acima/abaixo de 20%?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição do Estado de Berlim: CDU acima/abaixo de 20%?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição do Estado de Berlim: CDU acima/abaixo de 20%?" is "Eleições Estaduais de Berlim: CDU Acima/Abaixo de 20%?" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição do Estado de Berlim: CDU acima/abaixo de 20%?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.