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Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin

icon for Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin
Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin

Daniel Ennis 80%

Janice Boylan 13.2%

Gerry Hutch 1.7%

Malachy Steenson 1.0%

Polymarket

$3,093,568 Vol.

Daniel Ennis 80%

Janice Boylan 13.2%

Gerry Hutch 1.7%

Malachy Steenson 1.0%

Polymarket

$3,093,568 Vol.

Daniel Ennis

$42,941 Vol.

80%

Janice Boylan

$24,461 Vol.

13%

Gerry Hutch

$544,605 Vol.

2%

Malachy Steenson

$26,564 Vol.

1%

Ray McAdam

$38,408 Vol.

1%

Janet Horner

$24,085 Vol.

1%

John Stephens

$279,850 Vol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$1,210,713 Vol.

<1%

Gillian Sherratt

$507,167 Vol.

<1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$59,318 Vol.

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$27,230 Vol.

<1%

Mary Fitzpatrick

$308,267 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats holds the leading position in the Dublin Central by-election market due to Ireland’s single transferable vote system, where second and subsequent preferences from eliminated left-leaning candidates are expected to flow strongly his way. A recent Irish Times/Ipsos poll showed Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan ahead on first preferences at 21 percent to Ennis’s 18 percent and independent Gerry Hutch’s 14 percent, yet analysts note Ennis’s stronger transfer potential from parties including Labour, the Greens, and People Before Profit. The vacancy created by Paschal Donohoe’s resignation and the May 22 polling day have produced relatively low turnout, while the crowded field of 13 candidates fragments the initial vote and amplifies the role of later counts. Trader consensus assigns Ennis an implied probability above 75 percent on this basis.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$3,093,568
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats holds the leading position in the Dublin Central by-election market due to Ireland’s single transferable vote system, where second and subsequent preferences from eliminated left-leaning candidates are expected to flow strongly his way. A recent Irish Times/Ipsos poll showed Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan ahead on first preferences at 21 percent to Ennis’s 18 percent and independent Gerry Hutch’s 14 percent, yet analysts note Ennis’s stronger transfer potential from parties including Labour, the Greens, and People Before Profit. The vacancy created by Paschal Donohoe’s resignation and the May 22 polling day have produced relatively low turnout, while the crowded field of 13 candidates fragments the initial vote and amplifies the role of later counts. Trader consensus assigns Ennis an implied probability above 75 percent on this basis.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$3,093,568
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Daniel Ennis" at 80%, followed by "Janice Boylan" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin" has generated $3.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin" is "Daniel Ennis" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Janice Boylan" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.