Recent polling from Pew and others shows Black voters favoring Democratic House candidates by wide margins around 68-8 percent in mid-2026 surveys, with Republican-leaning identification among Black adults at 14 percent, reflecting erosion from 2024 gains amid economic pressures like higher Black unemployment and affordability concerns. Some July 2025 surveys captured temporary shifts reaching near 19 percent Republican support in generic ballots, driven by lingering 2024 momentum among younger and independent Black voters, yet most 2026 data indicate reversal tied to administration policies on DEI, tariffs, and redistricting after the Louisiana v. Callais ruling. Trader consensus clustering near 12-13 percent versus higher buckets reflects uncertainty over turnout mobilization in Southern primaries, varying poll methodologies, and whether midterm-specific dynamics can sustain or reverse modest long-term realignment trends ahead of November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado12–13% 46%
8–9% 44%
14–15% 44%
<8% 43%
NOVO
NOVO
6 nov 2026
12–13%
46%
8–9%
44%
14–15%
44%
<8%
43%
18%+
43%
16–17%
42%
10–11%
39%
12–13% 46%
8–9% 44%
14–15% 44%
<8% 43%
NOVO
NOVO
6 nov 2026
12–13%
$0 Vol.
46%
8–9%
$0 Vol.
44%
14–15%
$0 Vol.
44%
<8%
$0 Vol.
43%
18%+
$0 Vol.
43%
16–17%
$0 Vol.
42%
10–11%
$0 Vol.
39%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling from Pew and others shows Black voters favoring Democratic House candidates by wide margins around 68-8 percent in mid-2026 surveys, with Republican-leaning identification among Black adults at 14 percent, reflecting erosion from 2024 gains amid economic pressures like higher Black unemployment and affordability concerns. Some July 2025 surveys captured temporary shifts reaching near 19 percent Republican support in generic ballots, driven by lingering 2024 momentum among younger and independent Black voters, yet most 2026 data indicate reversal tied to administration policies on DEI, tariffs, and redistricting after the Louisiana v. Callais ruling. Trader consensus clustering near 12-13 percent versus higher buckets reflects uncertainty over turnout mobilization in Southern primaries, varying poll methodologies, and whether midterm-specific dynamics can sustain or reverse modest long-term realignment trends ahead of November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
7 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling from Pew and others shows Black voters favoring Democratic House candidates by wide margins around 68-8 percent in mid-2026 surveys, with Republican-leaning identification among Black adults at 14 percent, reflecting erosion from 2024 gains amid economic pressures like higher Black unemployment and affordability concerns. Some July 2025 surveys captured temporary shifts reaching near 19 percent Republican support in generic ballots, driven by lingering 2024 momentum among younger and independent Black voters, yet most 2026 data indicate reversal tied to administration policies on DEI, tariffs, and redistricting after the Louisiana v. Callais ruling. Trader consensus clustering near 12-13 percent versus higher buckets reflects uncertainty over turnout mobilization in Southern primaries, varying poll methodologies, and whether midterm-specific dynamics can sustain or reverse modest long-term realignment trends ahead of November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$0Data de Término
7 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Pew and others shows Black voters favoring Democratic House candidates by wide margins around 68-8 percent in mid-2026 surveys, with Republican-leaning identification among Black adults at 14 percent, reflecting erosion from 2024 gains amid economic pressures like higher Black unemployment and affordability concerns. Some July 2025 surveys captured temporary shifts reaching near 19 percent Republican support in generic ballots, driven by lingering 2024 momentum among younger and independent Black voters, yet most 2026 data indicate reversal tied to administration policies on DEI, tariffs, and redistricting after the Louisiana v. Callais ruling. Trader consensus clustering near 12-13 percent versus higher buckets reflects uncertainty over turnout mobilization in Southern primaries, varying poll methodologies, and whether midterm-specific dynamics can sustain or reverse modest long-term realignment trends ahead of November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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