Trader consensus favors no prison time at 39% implied probability, reflecting optimism from Weinstein's 2024 New York conviction overturn on procedural grounds and robust defense tactics in his third Manhattan rape retrial, where opening statements on April 21 highlighted text messages suggesting consent. The 20-30 years outcome at 28.5% draws support from his intact 2022 Los Angeles 16-year rape sentence—consecutive to any New York penalties—despite a pending appeal where justices expressed skepticism during oral arguments four days ago over excluded alibi evidence under California's rape shield law. With the New York trial underway and expected to conclude soon, plus looming appeal decisions, #MeToo-era frontrunner dynamics remain fluid amid Weinstein's deteriorating health at Rikers Island.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTempo de prisão de Harvey Weinstein?
Tempo de prisão de Harvey Weinstein?
Sem tempo de prisão 39.0%
20-30 anos 28.5%
10-20 anos 15.2%
Mais de 30 anos 9.6%
$883,592 Vol.
$883,592 Vol.
31 dez 2025
Sem tempo de prisão
39%
<5 anos
3%
5-10 anos
3%
10-20 anos
15%
20-30 anos
29%
Mais de 30 anos
10%
Sem tempo de prisão 39.0%
20-30 anos 28.5%
10-20 anos 15.2%
Mais de 30 anos 9.6%
$883,592 Vol.
$883,592 Vol.
31 dez 2025
Sem tempo de prisão
$323,883 Vol.
39%
<5 anos
$109,847 Vol.
3%
5-10 anos
$63,412 Vol.
3%
10-20 anos
$143,307 Vol.
15%
20-30 anos
$182,857 Vol.
29%
Mais de 30 anos
$60,287 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors no prison time at 39% implied probability, reflecting optimism from Weinstein's 2024 New York conviction overturn on procedural grounds and robust defense tactics in his third Manhattan rape retrial, where opening statements on April 21 highlighted text messages suggesting consent. The 20-30 years outcome at 28.5% draws support from his intact 2022 Los Angeles 16-year rape sentence—consecutive to any New York penalties—despite a pending appeal where justices expressed skepticism during oral arguments four days ago over excluded alibi evidence under California's rape shield law. With the New York trial underway and expected to conclude soon, plus looming appeal decisions, #MeToo-era frontrunner dynamics remain fluid amid Weinstein's deteriorating health at Rikers Island.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$883,592Data de Término
31 dez 2025Mercado Aberto
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors no prison time at 39% implied probability, reflecting optimism from Weinstein's 2024 New York conviction overturn on procedural grounds and robust defense tactics in his third Manhattan rape retrial, where opening statements on April 21 highlighted text messages suggesting consent. The 20-30 years outcome at 28.5% draws support from his intact 2022 Los Angeles 16-year rape sentence—consecutive to any New York penalties—despite a pending appeal where justices expressed skepticism during oral arguments four days ago over excluded alibi evidence under California's rape shield law. With the New York trial underway and expected to conclude soon, plus looming appeal decisions, #MeToo-era frontrunner dynamics remain fluid amid Weinstein's deteriorating health at Rikers Island.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$883,592Data de Término
31 dez 2025Mercado Aberto
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors no prison time at 39% implied probability, reflecting optimism from Weinstein's 2024 New York conviction overturn on procedural grounds and robust defense tactics in his third Manhattan rape retrial, where opening statements on April 21 highlighted text messages suggesting consent. The 20-30 years outcome at 28.5% draws support from his intact 2022 Los Angeles 16-year rape sentence—consecutive to any New York penalties—despite a pending appeal where justices expressed skepticism during oral arguments four days ago over excluded alibi evidence under California's rape shield law. With the New York trial underway and expected to conclude soon, plus looming appeal decisions, #MeToo-era frontrunner dynamics remain fluid amid Weinstein's deteriorating health at Rikers Island.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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