The August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations occurs amid a polarized campaign where polls show a narrowing 51-49 split, with fisheries rights, currency stability, and geopolitical pressures from U.S. tariffs shaping voter mobilization. Late-summer timing and the availability of early voting since late July introduce uncertainty around participation levels compared with recent parliamentary elections near 80 percent or lower-turnout prior referendums. The two-step process—negotiations first, membership terms later—may affect engagement among undecided or skeptical voters, while capital-region versus rural divides could influence overall participation. These elements sustain tight trader pricing across turnout bands as outcomes hinge on last-minute mobilization and baseline voter interest in the intermediate procedural question.