The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has become the dominant driver of trader pricing. The cases squarely ask whether the Second and Fourteenth Amendments protect AR-15-style semiautomatic rifles “in common use,” following signals from four conservative justices—including Justice Kavanaugh’s earlier statement that the issue would reach the Court soon. With oral arguments slated for the October 2026 term and a decision expected by mid-2027, the 6-3 conservative majority and recent Bruen-era expansions of gun rights support the modest 55.5% “Yes” consensus. At the same time, uncertainty over Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett, plus the Court’s history of incremental rulings, keeps probabilities closely balanced rather than decisive.