Recent polling from mid-2026 through September shows Morena maintaining a structural lead in party identification at 42-50%, well ahead of Movimiento Ciudadano and PAN. Within the Morena-PT-PVEM bloc, Lorenia Valles Sampedro consistently leads internal preference over Javier Lamarque Cano and Célida López Cárdenas, while Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas dominates Movimiento Ciudadano internals. Head-to-head scenarios place Valles ahead in most matchups against Colosio or PAN figures like Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez, though large shares of undecided voters and fragmented opposition fields keep individual probabilities compressed. Key variables ahead include final candidate selection by major parties, any Supreme Court rulings on term-length reforms, and shifts in voter turnout patterns across Sonora’s regions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLorenia Valles Sampedro 28%
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas 19.9%
Javier Lamarque Cano 20%
Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez 16.7%
$38,157 Vol.
$38,157 Vol.
Lorenia Valles Sampedro
28%
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas
20%
Javier Lamarque Cano
20%
Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez
17%
Célida Teresa López Cárdenas
6%
Ernesto Gándara Camou
4%
Natalia Rivera Grijalva
3%
Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez
3%
Froylán Gámez Gamboa
1%
Lilly Téllez García
1%
Rogelio Díaz Brown
<1%
Omar del Valle Colosio
<1%
Víctor Hugo Celaya
<1%
Guadalupe María Soto
<1%
Patricia Mercado Castro
<1%
María Dolores del Río Sánchez
<1%
Heriberto Aguilar Castillo
<1%
Damián Zepeda Vidales
<1%
Manuel Scott Sánchez
<1%
Lorenia Valles Sampedro 28%
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas 19.9%
Javier Lamarque Cano 20%
Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez 16.7%
$38,157 Vol.
$38,157 Vol.
Lorenia Valles Sampedro
28%
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas
20%
Javier Lamarque Cano
20%
Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez
17%
Célida Teresa López Cárdenas
6%
Ernesto Gándara Camou
4%
Natalia Rivera Grijalva
3%
Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez
3%
Froylán Gámez Gamboa
1%
Lilly Téllez García
1%
Rogelio Díaz Brown
<1%
Omar del Valle Colosio
<1%
Víctor Hugo Celaya
<1%
Guadalupe María Soto
<1%
Patricia Mercado Castro
<1%
María Dolores del Río Sánchez
<1%
Heriberto Aguilar Castillo
<1%
Damián Zepeda Vidales
<1%
Manuel Scott Sánchez
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 5, 2026, 6:49 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-2026 through September shows Morena maintaining a structural lead in party identification at 42-50%, well ahead of Movimiento Ciudadano and PAN. Within the Morena-PT-PVEM bloc, Lorenia Valles Sampedro consistently leads internal preference over Javier Lamarque Cano and Célida López Cárdenas, while Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas dominates Movimiento Ciudadano internals. Head-to-head scenarios place Valles ahead in most matchups against Colosio or PAN figures like Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez, though large shares of undecided voters and fragmented opposition fields keep individual probabilities compressed. Key variables ahead include final candidate selection by major parties, any Supreme Court rulings on term-length reforms, and shifts in voter turnout patterns across Sonora’s regions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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