Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 54.5% implied probability for at least one hole-in-one during the 2026 Masters tournament rounds at Augusta National, reflecting the course's history of aces on its par-3 holes—particularly the iconic No. 16, which has hosted 24 of 34 total Masters aces, with at least one in seven of the last 10 tournaments. This competitive balance stems from the elite field's precision iron play amid variable pin positions and green speeds, balanced against the rarity of perfect shots over four rounds. Mild weather forecasts—partly cloudy with light breezes early, warming to mid-80s—favor controlled approaches, but gustier conditions or tucked pins on Nos. 4, 6, or 12 could suppress odds; early Thursday play on softer greens from any overnight moisture might tip toward yes.