Recent polls for Victoria’s November 28, 2026 state election show the Liberal-National Coalition holding a consistent two-party-preferred lead over Labor of 51-55 percent, driven by voter fatigue after more than a decade in government and primary-vote fragmentation. One Nation’s rise to 23-27 percent has split the conservative vote while pushing Labor into third place on primaries in multiple surveys, though Labor’s recent leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced a modest rebound. These trends underpin trader pricing that places the Coalition as the clear frontrunner at 72.5 percent implied probability, with Labor, One Nation, and the Greens all below 12 percent. Seat-level dynamics remain fluid given preference flows and the upper-house balance, yet the sustained Coalition advantage on two-party metrics continues to anchor market sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLiberal–National 67%
One Nation 19%
Labor 12%
Greens 3.6%
NOVO
NOVO
28 nov 2026
Liberal–National
67%
One Nation
19%
Labor
12%
Greens
4%
Liberal–National 67%
One Nation 19%
Labor 12%
Greens 3.6%
NOVO
NOVO
28 nov 2026
Liberal–National
$5,281 Vol.
67%
One Nation
$422 Vol.
19%
Labor
$496 Vol.
12%
Greens
$139 Vol.
4%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polls for Victoria’s November 28, 2026 state election show the Liberal-National Coalition holding a consistent two-party-preferred lead over Labor of 51-55 percent, driven by voter fatigue after more than a decade in government and primary-vote fragmentation. One Nation’s rise to 23-27 percent has split the conservative vote while pushing Labor into third place on primaries in multiple surveys, though Labor’s recent leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced a modest rebound. These trends underpin trader pricing that places the Coalition as the clear frontrunner at 72.5 percent implied probability, with Labor, One Nation, and the Greens all below 12 percent. Seat-level dynamics remain fluid given preference flows and the upper-house balance, yet the sustained Coalition advantage on two-party metrics continues to anchor market sentiment.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$6,338Data de Término
28 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polls for Victoria’s November 28, 2026 state election show the Liberal-National Coalition holding a consistent two-party-preferred lead over Labor of 51-55 percent, driven by voter fatigue after more than a decade in government and primary-vote fragmentation. One Nation’s rise to 23-27 percent has split the conservative vote while pushing Labor into third place on primaries in multiple surveys, though Labor’s recent leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced a modest rebound. These trends underpin trader pricing that places the Coalition as the clear frontrunner at 72.5 percent implied probability, with Labor, One Nation, and the Greens all below 12 percent. Seat-level dynamics remain fluid given preference flows and the upper-house balance, yet the sustained Coalition advantage on two-party metrics continues to anchor market sentiment.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$6,338Data de Término
28 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Victoria’s November 28, 2026 state election show the Liberal-National Coalition holding a consistent two-party-preferred lead over Labor of 51-55 percent, driven by voter fatigue after more than a decade in government and primary-vote fragmentation. One Nation’s rise to 23-27 percent has split the conservative vote while pushing Labor into third place on primaries in multiple surveys, though Labor’s recent leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced a modest rebound. These trends underpin trader pricing that places the Coalition as the clear frontrunner at 72.5 percent implied probability, with Labor, One Nation, and the Greens all below 12 percent. Seat-level dynamics remain fluid given preference flows and the upper-house balance, yet the sustained Coalition advantage on two-party metrics continues to anchor market sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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