Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Pakistan a leading 25.5% implied probability for hosting the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, driven by Islamabad's recent offer from Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to mediate amid escalating Middle East tensions and Pakistan's balancing ties with both nations. Oman and Switzerland trail at around 10%, leveraging their precedents—Oman for indirect nuclear talks last year and Switzerland for neutral JCPOA venues like Geneva. No meeting by June 30 stands at 12.5%, reflecting doubts over Trump's incoming administration prioritizing engagement. Differentiation hinges on host neutrality, bilateral access, and precedent; consolidation could follow envoy dispatches or UN-related announcements, though outcomes remain fluid amid geopolitical risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoWhere will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Pakistan 27%
No Meeting by June 30 13%
Switzerland 11%
Oman 5%
Pakistan
27%
No Meeting by June 30
13%
Switzerland
11%
Oman
5%
Qatar
5%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
4%
Other
4%
Turkey
3%
Egypt
3%
UAE
3%
Austria
2%
Italy
2%
Russia
2%
Other - Europe
2%
USA
2%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Iraq
2%
Kazakhstan
2%
Iran
1%
Pakistan 27%
No Meeting by June 30 13%
Switzerland 11%
Oman 5%
Pakistan
27%
No Meeting by June 30
13%
Switzerland
11%
Oman
5%
Qatar
5%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
4%
Other
4%
Turkey
3%
Egypt
3%
UAE
3%
Austria
2%
Italy
2%
Russia
2%
Other - Europe
2%
USA
2%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Iraq
2%
Kazakhstan
2%
Iran
1%
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Pakistan a leading 25.5% implied probability for hosting the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, driven by Islamabad's recent offer from Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to mediate amid escalating Middle East tensions and Pakistan's balancing ties with both nations. Oman and Switzerland trail at around 10%, leveraging their precedents—Oman for indirect nuclear talks last year and Switzerland for neutral JCPOA venues like Geneva. No meeting by June 30 stands at 12.5%, reflecting doubts over Trump's incoming administration prioritizing engagement. Differentiation hinges on host neutrality, bilateral access, and precedent; consolidation could follow envoy dispatches or UN-related announcements, though outcomes remain fluid amid geopolitical risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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