Recent primary results and candidate adjustments have heightened uncertainty in Alaska’s November 2026 Senate and gubernatorial contests, both using ranked-choice voting after an open primary. In the Senate race, Democrat Mary Peltola has maintained a narrow edge over incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in post-primary ballot counts and surveys, keeping a Democratic flip competitive. For governor, the open seat saw Democrats Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Tom Begich initially lead the field; Begich’s August 29 withdrawal to consolidate support behind Kreiss-Tomkins has narrowed the Republican advantage held by candidates such as Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson. These developments, alongside Alaska’s history of split-ticket voting and limited general-election polling, position “Other” as the leading outcome while elevating the implied probability of a Democratic Senate win paired with either party taking the governorship. Traders appear to weigh the potential for further candidate movement or RCV redistributions before November.