President Trump’s April 2026 budget request for $152 million to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz as a federal prison marks the clearest executive step toward the project, following his May 2025 directive to the Bureau of Prisons, DOJ, FBI, and DHS. Congressional appropriations remain pending, however, and the site faces extensive logistical barriers including absent utilities, structural decay, and overlapping National Park Service management. Local opposition from San Francisco officials and substantial additional funding needs beyond the initial request further slow progress. With no confirmed appropriations or construction milestones achieved by mid-2026, traders assign a 94% probability that the facility will not reopen and operate as a prison within the calendar year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s April 2026 budget request for $152 million to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz as a federal prison marks the clearest executive step toward the project, following his May 2025 directive to the Bureau of Prisons, DOJ, FBI, and DHS. Congressional appropriations remain pending, however, and the site faces extensive logistical barriers including absent utilities, structural decay, and overlapping National Park Service management. Local opposition from San Francisco officials and substantial additional funding needs beyond the initial request further slow progress. With no confirmed appropriations or construction milestones achieved by mid-2026, traders assign a 94% probability that the facility will not reopen and operate as a prison within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Объем
$1,368Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s April 2026 budget request for $152 million to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz as a federal prison marks the clearest executive step toward the project, following his May 2025 directive to the Bureau of Prisons, DOJ, FBI, and DHS. Congressional appropriations remain pending, however, and the site faces extensive logistical barriers including absent utilities, structural decay, and overlapping National Park Service management. Local opposition from San Francisco officials and substantial additional funding needs beyond the initial request further slow progress. With no confirmed appropriations or construction milestones achieved by mid-2026, traders assign a 94% probability that the facility will not reopen and operate as a prison within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,368Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s April 2026 budget request for $152 million to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz as a federal prison marks the clearest executive step toward the project, following his May 2025 directive to the Bureau of Prisons, DOJ, FBI, and DHS. Congressional appropriations remain pending, however, and the site faces extensive logistical barriers including absent utilities, structural decay, and overlapping National Park Service management. Local opposition from San Francisco officials and substantial additional funding needs beyond the initial request further slow progress. With no confirmed appropriations or construction milestones achieved by mid-2026, traders assign a 94% probability that the facility will not reopen and operate as a prison within the calendar year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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