**Chapecoense sit rock bottom on 14 points after 24 matches with a -24 goal difference, making relegation to Série B nearly certain given 13 rounds remain.** Remo on 23 points and Internacional on 25 also occupy the Z-4 alongside Vasco da Gama, while Mirassol hovers just above on 25. The promoted sides Chapecoense and Remo have struggled most with poor recent form and heavy defeats, widening the gap to safety. Mid-table sides like Grêmio, Santos, and Vitória sit a few points clear but face tough upcoming fixtures that could pull them into the fight. Simulations reflect this hierarchy, with the bottom four facing the steepest paths to survival amid the typical late-season volatility of the Brasileirão.