**Recent opinion polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud below its current 32 seats, with most averages placing the party at 20–27 mandates.** This positioning underpins the market's 93.5% implied probability that Likud will lose seats. Voter support has eroded since the 2022 election amid the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 attacks, prolonged security challenges, and the earlier judicial reform debate. The emergence of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has further split the center-right vote, with recent surveys (mid-to-late August 2026) frequently showing Yashar at or above Likud’s projected totals. Likud’s August 17 primaries produced a slate emphasizing renewal and some more moderate figures, yielding modest short-term polling gains in a few surveys. However, these adjustments have not reversed the broader downward trend across multiple pollsters. Netanyahu’s coalition partners have also shown limited growth, leaving the overall right-religious bloc short of a clear majority in most projections. Traders appear to view sustained polling weakness, competition from new centrist alternatives, and structural voter fatigue as durable headwinds unlikely to reverse before the October vote. Late developments such as security incidents or coalition shifts could still alter trajectories, but current data points to a high probability of reduced Likud representation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено94% вероятность
$12,045 Объем
$12,045 Объем
26 окт. 2026 г.
94% вероятность
$12,045 Объем
$12,045 Объем
26 окт. 2026 г.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent opinion polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud below its current 32 seats, with most averages placing the party at 20–27 mandates.** This positioning underpins the market's 93.5% implied probability that Likud will lose seats.
Voter support has eroded since the 2022 election amid the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 attacks, prolonged security challenges, and the earlier judicial reform debate. The emergence of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has further split the center-right vote, with recent surveys (mid-to-late August 2026) frequently showing Yashar at or above Likud’s projected totals.
Likud’s August 17 primaries produced a slate emphasizing renewal and some more moderate figures, yielding modest short-term polling gains in a few surveys. However, these adjustments have not reversed the broader downward trend across multiple pollsters. Netanyahu’s coalition partners have also shown limited growth, leaving the overall right-religious bloc short of a clear majority in most projections.
Traders appear to view sustained polling weakness, competition from new centrist alternatives, and structural voter fatigue as durable headwinds unlikely to reverse before the October vote. Late developments such as security incidents or coalition shifts could still alter trajectories, but current data points to a high probability of reduced Likud representation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Открытие рынка: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Объем
$12,045Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent opinion polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud below its current 32 seats, with most averages placing the party at 20–27 mandates.** This positioning underpins the market's 93.5% implied probability that Likud will lose seats.
Voter support has eroded since the 2022 election amid the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 attacks, prolonged security challenges, and the earlier judicial reform debate. The emergence of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has further split the center-right vote, with recent surveys (mid-to-late August 2026) frequently showing Yashar at or above Likud’s projected totals.
Likud’s August 17 primaries produced a slate emphasizing renewal and some more moderate figures, yielding modest short-term polling gains in a few surveys. However, these adjustments have not reversed the broader downward trend across multiple pollsters. Netanyahu’s coalition partners have also shown limited growth, leaving the overall right-religious bloc short of a clear majority in most projections.
Traders appear to view sustained polling weakness, competition from new centrist alternatives, and structural voter fatigue as durable headwinds unlikely to reverse before the October vote. Late developments such as security incidents or coalition shifts could still alter trajectories, but current data points to a high probability of reduced Likud representation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Объем
$12,045Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent opinion polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud below its current 32 seats, with most averages placing the party at 20–27 mandates.** This positioning underpins the market's 93.5% implied probability that Likud will lose seats. Voter support has eroded since the 2022 election amid the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 attacks, prolonged security challenges, and the earlier judicial reform debate. The emergence of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has further split the center-right vote, with recent surveys (mid-to-late August 2026) frequently showing Yashar at or above Likud’s projected totals. Likud’s August 17 primaries produced a slate emphasizing renewal and some more moderate figures, yielding modest short-term polling gains in a few surveys. However, these adjustments have not reversed the broader downward trend across multiple pollsters. Netanyahu’s coalition partners have also shown limited growth, leaving the overall right-religious bloc short of a clear majority in most projections. Traders appear to view sustained polling weakness, competition from new centrist alternatives, and structural voter fatigue as durable headwinds unlikely to reverse before the October vote. Late developments such as security incidents or coalition shifts could still alter trajectories, but current data points to a high probability of reduced Likud representation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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