Iowa State enters the 2026 season amid a significant rebuild following the departure of longtime head coach Matt Campbell to Penn State and the exodus of roughly 55 players via the transfer portal. New head coach Jimmy Rogers, previously at Washington State, has assembled a largely retooled roster featuring dozens of incoming transfers and lower-division additions, creating uncertainty along both lines and in overall experience. The schedule opens with winnable non-conference matchups against SEMO and Bowling Green before a challenging Cy-Hawk rivalry game at Iowa and a demanding Big 12 slate. Preseason projections and win-total markets reflect this transition, with implied probabilities centering on a low total around 4.5–5.5 wins due to the scale of roster turnover and conference competition. Key variables include how quickly the new staff integrates players and whether early-season results against Group of Five opponents provide momentum heading into conference play.