Recent polls show Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leading first-round voting intentions near 30 percent ahead of the April 2027 contest, with Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon clustered behind, reflecting RN strength on immigration and security alongside a fragmented center and divided left. Marine Le Pen’s pending appeal on her embezzlement conviction and potential office ban have shifted trader attention toward Bardella as the likely RN standard-bearer. Philippe’s positioning as a Macron-era successor faces headwinds from investigations and weak consolidation among centrist voters, while Mélenchon’s recent gains highlight left-wing mobilization. These crosscurrents, plus uncertainty over runoff pairings and coalition dynamics, keep probabilities closely matched among the top three and limit separation until clearer candidate fields and voter alignments emerge.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоGabriel Attal campaigns in Brittany to connect with working French citizens
Between July 23 and 25, 2026, Gabriel Attal campaigned in Finistère and Morbihan, Brittany, engaging with workers during the summer season, aiming to boost his grassroots support, coinciding with his market price stabilizing at 3%.
François Hollande hints at possible 2027 presidential run
Former President François Hollande indicated he might run in the 2027 election, signaling a potential comeback that influenced his market price despite low chances of winning.
David Lisnard delivers speech on institutions at Bayeux, marking campaign milestone
On June 17, 2026, David Lisnard, mayor of Cannes and presidential candidate, gave a significant speech on institutional reform at Bayeux, commemorating the 80th anniversary of de Gaulle's speech, which helped maintain his market price around 2%.
François Hollande prepares candidacy and meets supporters secretly
François Hollande held a secret meeting with over 160 supporters in July 2026, signaling serious preparation for a potential 2027 presidential run and aiming to consolidate his base.
Jordan Bardella declares intention to form national unity government if RN wins in 2027
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%
Jordan Bardella announced plans to form a government of national unity beyond the National Rally if elected, signaling a strategic shift and cooperation with right-wing voters, which influenced his market price downward as Marine Le Pen's candidacy was confirmed.
Jordan Bardella shifts role after Marine Le Pen's candidacy confirmed
Jordan Bardella plunges to 4%22%
After Marine Le Pen's candidacy was confirmed, Jordan Bardella's market price plummeted as he moved from potential presidential candidate to a prime ministerial role in Le Pen's campaign. He announced plans to build the program and form a government, signaling a strategic repositioning.
Poll shows Marine Le Pen leading French presidential race after court ruling
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%21%
A poll conducted after the court ruling showed Marine Le Pen extending her lead in voter preference for the 2027 election, reflecting increased market confidence in her candidacy.
Marine Le Pen announces presidential candidacy after court ruling lifts ban
Marine Le Pen rises to 32%1%
Following the court decision, Le Pen publicly declared her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, reinforcing her market position and signaling her campaign launch.
French court suspends Marine Le Pen's electoral ban, clearing path for 2027 run
Marine Le Pen surges to 33%24%
A court ruling suspended Le Pen's ban while she appeals, allowing her to run in the 2027 election and boosting her market odds significantly.
Marine Le Pen launches presidential campaign despite legal challenges
Marine Le Pen rises to 31%3%
Following the court ruling, Marine Le Pen officially launched her presidential campaign on July 8, 2026, signaling her determination to run despite wearing an electronic monitor and ongoing legal scrutiny. This announcement reinforced her market position and solidified her candidacy.
Marine Le Pen officially declares candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen surges to 32%22%
Following the court ruling, Marine Le Pen declared her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, reaffirming her campaign despite legal challenges and promising to run without an electronic tag.
French court clears Marine Le Pen to run in 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen surges to 32%23%
A French court ruling suspended the effect of Marine Le Pen's electoral ban while she appeals, reopening her path to the 2027 presidential election and boosting her market price.
Marine Le Pen officially announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election after court ruling
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%21%
Following the court ruling, Marine Le Pen declared her candidacy on television, reinforcing her position as the National Rally's candidate and boosting her market price.
Marine Le Pen announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen rises to 31%4%
Following the court ruling, Marine Le Pen publicly declared her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, stating she would campaign without an electronic bracelet and appealing the conviction to the highest court. This announcement further increased her market support.
Marine Le Pen officially launches 2027 presidential campaign after court ruling
Marine Le Pen rises to 31%4%
Following the court decision, Marine Le Pen launched her presidential campaign, reaffirming her candidacy and boosting her market price further.
Jordan Bardella faces legal uncertainty as Marine Le Pen's appeal proceeds
Jordan Bardella plunges to 5%21%
With Marine Le Pen's eligibility uncertain due to her conviction appeal, Jordan Bardella's market price plummeted as his potential candidacy became less certain, reflecting the party's internal uncertainty.
Paris court clears Marine Le Pen to run for presidency with electronic tag
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%21%
The Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction for misuse of EU funds but reduced her ban on running for office, allowing her to run in the 2027 election while serving a prison sentence under electronic monitoring, boosting her market probability.
Marine Le Pen announces candidacy and plans to appeal house arrest ruling
Marine Le Pen jumps to 31%6%
Marine Le Pen announced she will run in the 2027 presidential election and plans to appeal the ruling mandating her house arrest, stating she will not campaign while wearing an electronic tag, impacting market confidence.
Paris Court of Appeal rules on Marine Le Pen's eligibility for 2027 election
Marine Le Pen surges to 25%19%
The Paris Court of Appeal reduced Marine Le Pen's sentence and suspended her electoral ban pending appeal, reopening her path to the 2027 presidential election and causing a significant rise in her market price.
Paris Court of Appeal reduces Marine Le Pen's ban, clearing way for 2027 candidacy
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%22%
The court upheld Le Pen's conviction but shortened her ban on holding public office, allowing her to run in the 2027 election. She confirmed her candidacy the same day, causing a sharp rise in her market price and a steep drop for Jordan Bardella, her potential replacement.
Paris Court of Appeal clears Marine Le Pen to run in 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen surges to 28%22%
The court shortened Marine Le Pen's ineligibility ban, allowing her to run in the 2027 election despite her conviction and sentence to electronic monitoring. This legal decision removed uncertainty about her candidacy and boosted her market probability significantly.
Marine Le Pen announces presidential candidacy and appeal against conviction
Marine Le Pen surges to 28%22%
Following the court ruling, Marine Le Pen declared her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and announced she would appeal her conviction to the Court of Cassation, allowing her to campaign without wearing an electronic tag for now, which positively impacted her market price.
Jordan Bardella expresses support for Marine Le Pen's presidential candidacy
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%
After Marine Le Pen's candidacy was confirmed, Jordan Bardella publicly expressed his support and commitment to work alongside her, which clarified his role and led to a sharp decline in his market price as he stepped back from running himself.
Paris appeals court upholds Marine Le Pen's conviction but shortens ban allowing 2027 presidential run
Marine Le Pen surges to 32%23%
The Paris appeals court upheld Marine Le Pen's embezzlement conviction but reduced her ban on holding elected office, enabling her to run in the 2027 presidential election and causing a significant price increase in her market probability.
Court ruling allows Marine Le Pen to run for president despite conviction
Marine Le Pen surges to 25%16%
A court ruling on Le Pen's appeal allowed her to run in the 2027 election despite her conviction and sentence to wear an electronic tag, reviving her candidacy and impacting market dynamics.
Marine Le Pen confirms candidacy for 2027 presidential election on TF1
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%25%
Marine Le Pen publicly confirmed her intention to run for president in 2027 during a TF1 broadcast, declaring the start of her campaign despite legal challenges and the requirement to wear an electronic tag.
Jordan Bardella's presidential prospects collapse after Le Pen court ruling
Jordan Bardella plunges to 5%22%
Jordan Bardella's market price plummeted after the court ruling allowed Marine Le Pen to run, ending Bardella's chances as the National Rally's candidate. Bardella returned to a secondary role within the party.
Paris Court of Appeals rules Marine Le Pen eligible to run in 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen surges to 32%23%
On July 7, 2026, the Paris Court of Appeals reduced Marine Le Pen's sentence and suspended her electoral ban pending appeal, clearing her path to run in the 2027 presidential election and causing a sharp rise in her market price.
Court of Appeal shortens Marine Le Pen's ban, allowing 2027 presidential run
Marine Le Pen surges to 29%20%
The Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction but reduced her ineligibility period, enabling her to run in the 2027 presidential election, causing a sharp rise in her market price and a collapse for Jordan Bardella.
Bruno Retailleau presents AI priorities at Salon Machina, emphasizing technology in governance
On July 7, 2026, Bruno Retailleau, LR presidential candidate, unveiled his priorities on artificial intelligence at the Salon Machina, advocating for significant investment to enhance state efficiency, which helped maintain his market price at 3%.
Paris appeals court reduces Marine Le Pen's ban, allowing 2027 presidential run
Marine Le Pen surges to 29%23%
The Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction but shortened her ban on holding elected office, enabling her to run in the 2027 presidential election. This legal development caused a significant increase in her market price as it cleared uncertainty about her candidacy.
Marine Le Pen officially announces presidential candidacy after court ruling
Marine Le Pen surges to 27%18%
Following the court decision, Marine Le Pen publicly confirmed her candidacy for the presidency, ending uncertainty and boosting her market price significantly.
Marine Le Pen confirms 2027 presidential candidacy after appeal court ruling
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%25%
Following the court ruling, Marine Le Pen officially announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, reinforcing her market position and impacting the National Rally's dynamics.
Paris Court of Appeal upholds Marine Le Pen's conviction but reduces ineligibility period
Marine Le Pen surges to 27%18%
The court ruling confirmed Le Pen's conviction but shortened her ban from office, allowing her to run in the 2027 election. This led to a sharp increase in her market price and a collapse in Jordan Bardella's price, who was her potential substitute.
Paris appeals court shortens Marine Le Pen's ban, allowing 2027 presidential run
Marine Le Pen surges to 30%24%
The court upheld Le Pen's conviction but reduced her ban on holding public office, enabling her to run in the 2027 election. This ruling revived her candidacy prospects and affected market dynamics, with Bardella as a backup.
Marine Le Pen announces 2027 presidential candidacy despite legal challenges
Marine Le Pen rises to 31%1%
Following the court ruling, Le Pen declared her candidacy for the 2027 election, signaling her intent to campaign without an electronic tag. This announcement significantly boosted her market price and solidified her position as a frontrunner.
Paris Court of Appeal shortens Marine Le Pen’s ban, clearing way for 2027 presidential run
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%21%
On July 7, 2026, the Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction but reduced her ineligibility sentence, allowing her to run in the 2027 presidential election, which caused her market price to rise significantly.
Édouard Philippe holds major campaign rally in Paris
Édouard Philippe rises to 27%3%
Édouard Philippe held a significant campaign rally at the Adidas Arena in Paris, receiving endorsements and consolidating his position as a leading center-right candidate, which supported his market price.
Paris appeals court to rule on Marine Le Pen's eligibility for 2027 election
Marine Le Pen rises to 9%2%
The Paris Court of Appeal is set to decide on Marine Le Pen's appeal against her embezzlement conviction, a ruling that will determine her eligibility to run in the 2027 presidential election, causing market uncertainty.
Édouard Philippe launches major campaign rally for 2027 presidential bid in Paris
Édouard Philippe rises to 28%4%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe held a large campaign event in Paris to officially launch his 2027 presidential campaign, boosting his visibility and market price.
Édouard Philippe launches presidential campaign with promise of collective effort and education reform
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%6%
Édouard Philippe officially launched his presidential campaign on July 5, 2026, promising a collective effort from the French people and a massive overhaul of the education system, which contributed to his market price rising to 26%.
Édouard Philippe holds first major campaign meeting in Paris
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%6%
On July 5, 2026, Édouard Philippe held his first large campaign meeting at the Adidas Arena in Paris, outlining his program focused on reducing public deficit and reforming education, which boosted his market price from 20% to 26%.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon asserts ability to defeat far-right candidates
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%
On July 5, 2026, Jean-Luc Mélenchon publicly stated his confidence in beating the National Rally candidates and potentially eliminating them in the first round, maintaining his steady campaign presence and modest market gains.
Jordan Bardella calls for change, warning against continuing as before
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%
On July 4, 2026, Jordan Bardella, RN leader, publicly stated that the greatest danger for France in 2027 is to continue as before, signaling his campaign's focus on change, coinciding with his market price dropping to 3%.
David Lisnard holds first major campaign meeting in Saint-Raphaël
David Lisnard launched his presidential campaign with a large meeting in Saint-Raphaël, emphasizing his independent right-wing platform and criticizing the Macronist camp.
Laurent Wauquiez offers political support to Édouard Philippe
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%
Laurent Wauquiez, leader of the Les Républicains deputies, publicly extended support to Édouard Philippe's presidential bid, signaling a consolidation of center-right forces behind Philippe. This endorsement was seen as a strategic addition to Philippe's campaign, likely contributing to increased market confidence in his candidacy.
François Hollande's approval rises among leftist voters despite low overall support
François Hollande dips to 2%1%
Polls in early July showed François Hollande gaining positive reviews among left-wing voters, reaching 46% approval in that group, though his overall market price declined to 2%. This indicates a niche resurgence but limited broader electoral impact.
Investigation opens into Jordan Bardella over alleged EU fund misuse
Jordan Bardella plunges to 4%22%
Jordan Bardella, then front-runner for the National Rally, was investigated for alleged embezzlement of EU funds, damaging his candidacy prospects and leading to a sharp decline in his market price.
French government officially sets presidential election dates for April 18 and May 2, 2027
The official announcement of the election dates provided clarity on the election timeline, confirming the schedule for the first round and runoff, which influenced market expectations for all candidates.
French presidential election dates set for April 18 and May 2, 2027
The official dates for the 2027 French presidential election were announced, confirming the first round on April 18 and the runoff on May 2, setting the timeline for campaigns and influencing market expectations.
Marine Le Pen expresses no fear ahead of July 7 court ruling on eligibility
Marine Le Pen rises to 9%2%
Facing a critical court decision on her appeal against a five-year ban from public office, Marine Le Pen publicly stated she was not afraid, keeping uncertainty over her candidacy alive and affecting market prices.
Marine Le Pen appeal verdict expected, determining her eligibility for 2027 election
The Paris Court of Appeal was set to rule on July 7, 2026, on Marine Le Pen's appeal against her 2025 conviction and five-year ban from holding office. The verdict would decide if she could run in 2027, with a ban likely elevating Jordan Bardella as the RN candidate.
France sets presidential election dates for April 18 and May 2, 2027
The official announcement of the election dates provided clarity on the timeline, impacting candidate strategies and market prices, especially for leading contenders.
Gabriel Attal outlines vision for a liberal and uncompromising project
Gabriel Attal dips to 3%1%
Gabriel Attal publicly presented his vision for a liberal and uncompromising political project on June 30, 2026, positioning himself as a unifier beyond the right and center, which helped stabilize his market price around 3%.
France sets presidential election date for April 18, 2027
France officially announced the first round of the next presidential election will be held on April 18, 2027, with a runoff on May 2, providing a clear timeline for the campaign and market participants.
Government spokesman Maud Bregeon endorses Édouard Philippe for 2027 presidency
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%7%
Maud Bregeon, government spokesperson, publicly supported Édouard Philippe's candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, providing a boost to his campaign and market price.
Government spokesperson Maud Bregeon endorses Édouard Philippe for presidency
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%6%
On June 29, 2026, Maud Bregeon publicly supported Édouard Philippe's presidential bid, boosting his profile and signaling establishment backing. This endorsement likely contributed to his market price increase in late June.
François Hollande hints at possible 2027 presidential run
François Hollande dips to 3%1%
Former president François Hollande showed signs of preparing for a potential 2027 presidential campaign in late June 2026, generating some market interest though his price remained low due to uncertainty about his candidacy.
Court of Appeal to rule on Marine Le Pen's eligibility to run in 2027 election
The Paris Court of Appeal was expected to decide in summer 2026 whether Marine Le Pen could run in the 2027 presidential election, creating uncertainty around her candidacy and affecting related market prices.
Poll shows Édouard Philippe maintains lead among centrists but faces pressure from Attal and Mélenchon
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%
A June 26 Ifop-Fiducial poll showed Édouard Philippe leading the centrist vote but with narrowing margins as Gabriel Attal and Jean-Luc Mélenchon gained ground. Philippe's market price fluctuated around 19-21%, reflecting uncertainty in his campaign strength.
Édouard Philippe holds major nationwide discussion event
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%3%
Philippe organized a significant nationwide discussion event as part of his campaign strategy to mobilize grassroots support, contributing to a gradual increase in his market price.
Polls confirm Jordan Bardella's record popularity and far-right lead
Jordan Bardella rises to 27%1%
June polls showed Jordan Bardella's approval rating doubling over four years to 40%, solidifying his lead over Marine Le Pen and other candidates. This reinforced Bardella's market price near 27%, reflecting strong public support for his candidacy.
Franck Leroy, President of Greater East Region, endorses Édouard Philippe
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%6%
Franck Leroy publicly supported Édouard Philippe for the presidential election, boosting Philippe's credibility and market price as a leading center-right candidate.
Bruno Retailleau announces bid for 2027 presidential election
Bruno Retailleau rises to 3%1%
Bruno Retailleau publicly declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, emphasizing a platform focused on order and prosperity. This announcement was reflected in a slight increase in his market price.
Bruno Retailleau holds first major campaign rally in Paris
On June 20, 2026, Bruno Retailleau held his first major campaign rally at Parc Floral in Paris, aiming to broaden his conservative base and increase his visibility ahead of the election. Despite the rally, his market price remained low around 3%.
Bruno Retailleau launches presidential campaign with party backing
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau, president of Les Républicains, officially launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election with party endorsement, though his market price declined due to internal party competition and low polling.
Jordan Bardella gains as Marine Le Pen's substitute candidate amid legal uncertainty
Jordan Bardella rises to 26%4%
With Marine Le Pen's legal troubles ongoing, Jordan Bardella's market probability stabilized and slightly increased as he was positioned as the National Rally's substitute candidate for 2027.
Bruno Retailleau holds grand meeting in Paris as presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau held a major campaign event in Paris, signaling his active campaign for the 2027 presidential election and attempting to boost his visibility and support.
Bruno Retailleau holds first campaign meeting in Paris to build momentum
Retailleau organized his first major campaign meeting at Parc floral de Paris to solidify his candidacy amid questions about his political line and absences of key party figures. The event aimed to create a dynamic for his presidential bid.
Dominique de Villepin's popularity declines amid presidential speculation
Dominique de Villepin drops to 3%5%
Dominique de Villepin's market price dropped significantly as his potential candidacy became less certain and his political influence waned during the analysis period.
Raphaël Glucksmann holds first major campaign rally
Raphaël Glucksmann held a significant campaign rally in Aubervilliers, reaffirming his determination to run and boosting his profile among left-leaning voters, though his market price remained low.
Gabriel Attal launches major campaign rally in Paris presenting future-focused platform
Gabriel Attal rises to 9%3%
On June 10, Gabriel Attal held a large rally in Paris to present his campaign platform emphasizing education, wages, borders, and AI innovation. This event aimed to recast his image as a candidate of renewal, stabilizing his market price around 6% to 9%.
Bruno Retailleau announces candidacy for 2027 French presidential election
Bruno Retailleau rises to 5%2%
Bruno Retailleau, leader of The Republicans party, announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, leading to a rise in his market price.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon launches 2027 campaign rally in Saint-Denis
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 13%2%
Mélenchon held a large rally in Saint-Denis to officially launch his presidential campaign, demonstrating his established political machine and solidifying his campaign presence. This event reinforced his candidacy and maintained his market support.
Paris riots boost Jordan Bardella's approval ratings
Jordan Bardella rises to 26%1%
Riots in Paris heightened public concern over disorder and immigration, significantly increasing Bardella's approval and market support as a leading far-right candidate.
Jordan Bardella's popularity surges after PSG-related unrest
Jordan Bardella rises to 27%3%
Following unrest linked to PSG's victory, Jordan Bardella's popularity reached a record high, with polls showing increased public support. This surge contributed to Bardella's market price rising from 24% to 27% in early June, reinforcing his position as the far-right frontrunner.
David Lisnard announces departure from The Republicans amid presidential primary dispute
David Lisnard dips to 2%4%
Following his strong municipal election win in March 2026, David Lisnard announced his departure from The Republicans in early June 2026 due to disagreements over the presidential candidate selection process, leading to a drop in his market price.
Gabriel Attal formally launches 2027 presidential campaign with reform agenda
Gabriel Attal rises to 7%1%
Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, emphasizing fiscal reforms including voluntary public sector job cuts and budget discipline, which affected his market price.
Gabriel Attal kicks off presidential campaign with major rally in Paris
Gabriel Attal rises to 9%3%
Gabriel Attal launched his presidential campaign on May 30, 2026, with a major rally in Paris, emphasizing reform and a break from the Macron era. This event helped stabilize his market price around 6-9%.
Édouard Philippe confirms candidacy for 2027 presidential election despite legal scrutiny
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Édouard Philippe declared he would run for president regardless of any non-final judicial decisions, reinforcing his position as a leading center-right candidate and influencing market confidence in his chances.
Poll shows Jean-Luc Mélenchon surging, neck and neck with Édouard Philippe
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%
An Odoxa poll published on May 26 indicated Jean-Luc Mélenchon gaining 4 points to reach 16%, closely matching Édouard Philippe's 17%, signaling a tightening race for second place behind Jordan Bardella. This poll caused Mélenchon's market price to rise from 9% to 12%, while Philippe's price dipped from 21% to 16%.
Gabriel Attal formally launches presidential bid
Gabriel Attal jumps to 9%6%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, entering the crowded centrist field and sparking competition for the moderate vote. This announcement caused a price increase in his market share.
Gabriel Attal officially announces 2027 presidential candidacy
Gabriel Attal drops to 2%14%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as a centrist alternative. His entry contributed to a decline in his market price as he competed with other centrist candidates.
Gabriel Attal formally announces presidential candidacy for 2027
Gabriel Attal drops to 6%10%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal officially launched his bid for the presidency, positioning himself as a centrist alternative and causing a rise in his market price as he entered the race.
Gabriel Attal officially enters 2027 French presidential race
Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%
Gabriel Attal, former Prime Minister and Secretary General of Renaissance party, formally announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, impacting his market price.
Gabriel Attal officially announces presidential candidacy
Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%
Gabriel Attal formally launched his bid for the 2027 French presidential election on May 22, 2026, positioning himself as a centrist alternative and causing a rise in his market price.
Gabriel Attal officially declares candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Gabriel Attal dips to 4%2%
Gabriel Attal announced his presidential bid on May 22, 2026, aiming to lead the centrist camp and distinguish himself from Macron's legacy. His entry intensified the centrist competition, reflected in a drop in his market price following the announcement.
Gabriel Attal officially declares 2027 presidential candidacy
Gabriel Attal drops to 8%8%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, intensifying competition within the centrist camp and affecting market prices for centrist candidates.
Gabriel Attal formally announces candidacy for 2027 French presidential election
Gabriel Attal drops to 3%13%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal officially launched his presidential campaign, positioning himself as a centrist challenger to the far right and impacting his market price.
Gabriel Attal officially launches 2027 presidential bid
Gabriel Attal formally announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, increasing his visibility and market support as a centrist contender.
Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%5%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as a leading centrist candidate and causing a rise in his market price.
Gabriel Attal announces presidential candidacy for 2027 election
Gabriel Attal rises to 6%3%
On May 22, 2026, former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal formally announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, entering the crowded centrist field and sparking competition for the moderate vote. This announcement caused his market price to rise from 3% to 6%.
Gabriel Attal launches presidential campaign, challenging centrist field
Gabriel Attal drops to 4%12%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his presidential bid, intensifying competition among centrist candidates and impacting his market price.
Édouard Philippe launches presidential campaign to challenge far right
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign in May 2026, positioning himself as the leading centrist candidate to counter the far-right National Rally. His campaign focused on uniting the center-right and addressing conservative issues, which helped maintain and slightly increase his market price around 21-27%.
Gabriel Attal officially announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Gabriel Attal drops to 3%13%
Gabriel Attal, former Prime Minister and Renaissance party secretary general, officially declared his candidacy on May 22, 2026, signaling his ambition to lead France into the future and intensifying competition within the centrist camp. This announcement contributed to his market price stabilizing around 3%.
Gabriel Attal announces 2027 presidential bid
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as a centrist candidate to succeed Emmanuel Macron and challenge the far right.
Gabriel Attal officially launches presidential campaign
Gabriel Attal rises to 10%4%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his bid for the presidency, aiming to position himself as a centrist alternative and distancing from Macron. This entry increased his market support and intensified centrist competition.
Édouard Philippe targeted by embezzlement probe
Édouard Philippe dips to 14%3%
Philippe faced a judicial investigation over alleged embezzlement related to a contract in Le Havre, potentially impacting his campaign and market support due to legal uncertainties.
French presidential contender Édouard Philippe targeted by embezzlement probe
Édouard Philippe dips to 17%4%
On May 20, 2026, French prosecutors announced a probe against Édouard Philippe over alleged embezzlement related to a digital hub contract in Le Havre, causing uncertainty and a dip in his market price.
Bruno Retailleau elected president of The Republicans party
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 4%24%
Bruno Retailleau won the leadership of The Republicans with 74.31% of the vote, consolidating his position as the party's presidential candidate. This leadership victory was a key factor in his market price decline as he entered the race.
Édouard Philippe projects Horizons party towards 2027 presidential election
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Édouard Philippe, former Prime Minister and leader of Horizons, positioned himself as a unifying candidate for the 2027 election, distancing from Macron. This bolstered his market price and solidified his candidacy.
Édouard Philippe launches campaign for 2027 French presidential election
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his presidential campaign, positioning himself as the main centrist candidate to challenge the far-right, which boosted his market price.
Édouard Philippe holds major rally to boost 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 24%6%
Édouard Philippe organized a large rally in Reims to galvanize support for his presidential bid, reflecting his growing momentum and steady polling position.
Édouard Philippe launches presidential campaign to challenge far right
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%5%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign, positioning himself as the main centrist contender against the far-right candidates, influencing his market price upward.
Édouard Philippe launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election, consolidating his position as a leading centrist candidate and main rival to the far right. This campaign launch helped increase his market probability.
Judicial probe opened against Édouard Philippe over alleged corruption
Édouard Philippe drops to 14%7%
A judicial investigation was opened against Édouard Philippe concerning alleged misappropriation of public funds and conflict of interest, potentially damaging his presidential campaign prospects and causing a decline in market probability.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces 2027 presidential bid
Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 11%7%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon declared his candidacy for the 2027 election, but his market price declined from 18% to 11% over the period, reflecting challenges in left-wing voter consolidation.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces fourth presidential run for 2027
Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 13%5%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to consolidate the radical left vote despite internal divisions. This announcement was followed by a slight decline in his market price from 18% to around 13%, reflecting mixed voter sentiment.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces candidacy for 2027 French presidential election
Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 13%5%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially declared his run for the 2027 presidency, marking his fourth attempt and positioning himself as the leading left-wing candidate, which influenced his market price downward due to competition and fragmentation on the left.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces 2027 French presidential bid
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%2%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election on May 3, 2026, positioning himself as the main left-wing candidate and impacting his market price.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially announces 2027 presidential candidacy
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%2%
Mélenchon declared his run for the 2027 election on May 3, 2026, emphasizing his left-wing platform and positioning himself as a major candidate. This announcement confirmed his participation and influenced his market odds, which showed a modest increase afterward.
Paris appeals court sets July 7 verdict date for Marine Le Pen's appeal trial
Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%
The court announced the verdict date for Le Pen's appeal trial, heightening uncertainty about her presidential bid and boosting Bardella's prospects as her potential replacement, impacting their market prices.
François Hollande hints at preparing for 2027 presidential run
François Hollande drops to 3%10%
Former President François Hollande indicated he was preparing for a possible candidacy in the 2027 presidential election, which modestly increased his market probability despite significant challenges within his party and electorate.
François Hollande openly prepares for 2027 presidential election
François Hollande drops to 3%10%
Former President François Hollande publicly indicated he is preparing for a possible candidacy in the 2027 election, emphasizing his experience and desire to unite the left and center electorate.
Bruno Retailleau makes controversial remarks about Spain
Bruno Retailleau dips to 3%1%
Retailleau's statement about ostracizing Spain from the EU sparked controversy, affecting his public image and possibly contributing to fluctuations in his market price.
Bruno Retailleau officially endorsed as Les Républicains presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau won the official backing of the Les Républicains party after an internal survey favored launching his campaign immediately over holding a primary. This endorsement was expected to boost his campaign and consolidate right-wing support.
Bruno Retailleau selected as official Les Républicains candidate for 2027 presidency
Bruno Retailleau surges to 28%23%
Les Républicains party members overwhelmingly endorsed Bruno Retailleau as their presidential candidate with 73.8% of the vote, solidifying his position and causing a market price surge.
Bruno Retailleau endorsed as The Republicans' presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
On April 19, 2026, The Republicans party members voted to endorse Bruno Retailleau directly as their presidential candidate, leading to his market price decline as he entered the race and consolidating his position.
Bruno Retailleau officially nominated as Les Républicains candidate for 2027 election
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau secured the official backing of Les Républicains party members, becoming their presidential candidate, which initially boosted his market price before it declined amid competition.
Bruno Retailleau elected president of The Republicans party
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Retailleau won the leadership of The Republicans with 74.31% of the vote in May 2025, consolidating his position as the party's presidential candidate, which influenced his market price.
Bruno Retailleau officially designated Les Républicains candidate for 2027
Bruno Retailleau rises to 7%4%
On April 19, 2026, Les Républicains party members overwhelmingly chose Bruno Retailleau as their presidential candidate, eliminating the need for a primary and causing his market price to rise from 3% to 7%.
The Republicans endorse Bruno Retailleau as presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau jumps to 41%11%
The Republicans party members voted overwhelmingly to back Bruno Retailleau as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election, solidifying his position and impacting his market price positively.
Bruno Retailleau endorsed as Les Républicains candidate for 2027 presidency
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau was officially endorsed by the members of Les Républicains as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election, solidifying his position in the race. This endorsement led to a market price drop from 28% to 3%, reflecting the competitive and fragmented right-wing field.
Bruno Retailleau designated as Les Républicains presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau was officially designated as the candidate of Les Républicains for the 2027 presidential election by party members, consolidating his position as the right-wing contender within the party.
Bruno Retailleau nominated as The Republicans' candidate for 2027 presidency
Bruno Retailleau surges to 28%25%
Retailleau secured the nomination of The Republicans party with strong internal support, marking him as the official conservative candidate and impacting his market price positively.
Bruno Retailleau selected as The Republicans' presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau was officially chosen by The Republicans party members as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election in an internal vote. Despite this endorsement, his market price remained low around 3%, indicating limited broader support.
François Hollande signals preparation for 2027 presidential run
François Hollande drops to 3%10%
Former President François Hollande publicly stated he is preparing for a possible 2027 presidential candidacy, which modestly influenced his market price.
David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and presidential candidacy
David Lisnard plunges to 2%15%
David Lisnard left Les Républicains and announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to represent a new right-wing movement. This announcement led to a decline in his market price as he entered a crowded field.
François Hollande signals preparation for 2027 presidential run
François Hollande rises to 17%4%
Former President François Hollande publicly stated he was preparing for a possible 2027 presidential bid, increasing speculation about his candidacy and causing a modest rise in his market price. His experience and potential to unite parts of the left were factors in this market movement.
Dominique de Villepin declares intent to be 'candidate of unity' for 2027
Dominique de Villepin rises to 7%2%
Dominique de Villepin publicly expressed his desire to be a unifying candidate for the 2027 presidential election on April 10, 2026, which briefly raised his market price from 5% to 7%.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces fourth presidential campaign
Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, confirming his participation and influencing his market price.
Bruno Retailleau officially endorsed as Les Républicains candidate for 2027 presidential election
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau secured the official backing of Les Républicains to run in the 2027 presidential election, marking his entry as a key center-right contender and influencing his market price.
David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and presidential candidacy
David Lisnard drops to 4%13%
David Lisnard officially left Les Républicains and declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, marking a significant move in the right-wing field and influencing his market price.
Bruno Retailleau announces surveillance of LFI-led cities
Bruno Retailleau rises to 6%1%
Retailleau launched an observatory to monitor cities governed by La France Insoumise, positioning himself against Jean-Luc Mélenchon and signaling his presidential ambitions, impacting his market support.
Bruno Retailleau launches observatory to monitor La France Insoumise-led cities
Bruno Retailleau jumps to 10%5%
Bruno Retailleau announced the creation of an observatory to document and denounce actions by cities led by La France Insoumise, positioning himself strongly against Jean-Luc Mélenchon and energizing his base.
Marine Le Pen barred from running for French president due to embezzlement conviction
Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%
Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from running for political office following a conviction for embezzlement of European Parliament funds, effectively disqualifying her from the 2027 presidential election and elevating Jordan Bardella as the likely far-right candidate.
David Lisnard leaves Les Républicains and announces 2027 presidential candidacy
David Lisnard plunges to 2%15%
David Lisnard quit Les Républicains on March 31, 2026, and declared his independent presidential bid, criticizing his former party's direction. His announcement marked his entry as a right-wing alternative, though his market price remained low reflecting limited national support.
David Lisnard quits Les Républicains and declares presidential candidacy
David Lisnard dips to 2%3%
David Lisnard officially left Les Républicains and announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, causing a drop in his market price due to party split.
Marine Le Pen convicted of embezzlement with five-year ban from office
Marine Le Pen drops to 10%6%
Marine Le Pen was convicted for embezzlement and sentenced to a five-year ban from holding public office, casting doubt on her eligibility for the 2027 presidential election and impacting her market price.
David Lisnard leaves The Republicans and announces independent presidential bid
David Lisnard plunges to 2%15%
David Lisnard officially quit The Republicans and declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, criticizing the party's candidate selection process. His market price dropped from 17% to around 2%, reflecting his outsider status and limited initial support.
David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and presidential candidacy
David Lisnard plunges to 2%15%
David Lisnard formally left Les Républicains and declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, leading to a decline in his market price as he entered the race independently.
David Lisnard officially announces 2027 presidential candidacy after leaving Les Républicains
David Lisnard dips to 3%1%
David Lisnard announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election on March 31, 2026, after quitting Les Républicains, which influenced his market price downward due to low national recognition.
David Lisnard announces presidential candidacy and departure from Les Républicains
David Lisnard plunges to 2%15%
David Lisnard formally declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and left Les Républicains, marking a strategic shift and influencing his market price downward.
Poll shows Édouard Philippe leading against far-right rivals
Édouard Philippe jumps to 20%6%
A poll by Elabe showed Édouard Philippe leading in head-to-head matchups against Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, boosting market confidence in his candidacy and increasing his price.
David Lisnard announces departure from The Republicans over candidate selection
David Lisnard dips to 3%2%
David Lisnard announced his departure from The Republicans party due to disagreements over the presidential candidate selection process, reflecting internal party tensions and impacting his market price.
Edouard Philippe reelected mayor of Le Havre, boosting presidential bid
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Philippe's reelection as mayor of Le Havre strengthened his credentials and positioned him as a leading candidate to challenge the far right in the 2027 presidential election, positively impacting his market standing.
Édouard Philippe re-elected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%3%
Philippe's re-election as mayor of Le Havre in March 2026 solidified his status as a leading presidential candidate, reinforcing his campaign and stabilizing his market price around 21%.
Édouard Philippe reelected as mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe rises to 24%4%
Philippe's reelection as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his political standing and campaign momentum for the 2027 presidential election, positively impacting his market price.
Édouard Philippe wins re-election as mayor of Le Havre, boosting presidential bid
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%
Édouard Philippe’s re-election as mayor of Le Havre in March 2026 reinforced his status as a leading presidential candidate, stabilizing and boosting his market price as a credible centrist contender.
David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and candidacy for 2027 presidential election
David Lisnard plunges to 2%15%
David Lisnard officially left Les Républicains and declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to represent a new right-wing movement, which impacted his market price downward due to fragmentation.
David Lisnard re-elected mayor of Cannes with strong majority
David Lisnard drops to 5%12%
David Lisnard's re-election as mayor with over 81% of the vote bolstered his political profile ahead of his presidential bid, contributing to his market price increase.
Édouard Philippe re-elected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Édouard Philippe's re-election as mayor of Le Havre bolstered his position as a credible centrist candidate for the 2027 presidential election, reflected in stable market probabilities.
Far-right’s presidential candidate to be decided after Marine Le Pen’s appeal ruling
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%
The Paris court of appeal was scheduled to deliver its ruling on Marine Le Pen’s corruption case on July 7, 2026, which would determine if Jordan Bardella would replace her as the National Rally’s presidential candidate, impacting Bardella’s market position.
Bruno Retailleau announces 2027 presidential candidacy
Bruno Retailleau rises to 33%3%
Bruno Retailleau publicly announced his intention to run for the 2027 presidential election, reinforcing his market position as the Republican candidate.
Dominique de Villepin gains renewed popularity amid international commentary
Dominique de Villepin rises to 4%1%
Dominique de Villepin regained favor with the French public, topping a poll of favorite political figures in May 2025 and maintaining steady popularity into 2026, though without official candidacy announcement. This sustained his market presence despite low price.
Bruno Retailleau announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Bruno Retailleau dips to 3%3%
Bruno Retailleau, president of Les Républicains and former interior minister, announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election in February 2026, becoming the party’s official candidate and impacting his market price.
Bruno Retailleau announces presidential run
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 5%23%
Bruno Retailleau, leader of the French conservatives, announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, gaining official party backing and entering the crowded race to succeed Emmanuel Macron.
Bruno Retailleau announces 2027 presidential run as Republicans candidate
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau declared his candidacy on February 12, 2026, and was officially nominated by Les Républicains on April 19, 2026. His campaign launch and party endorsement solidified his position as the main right-wing candidate, reflected in his initial market price and subsequent decline as competition intensified.
Edouard Philippe reelected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%3%
Edouard Philippe's reelection as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his position as a leading center-right candidate for the presidency, stabilizing and slightly increasing his market price.
French prosecutors seek to uphold ban on Marine Le Pen's presidential candidacy
Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%
Prosecutors requested the appeals court to maintain the ban on Marine Le Pen running for president due to embezzlement charges, creating uncertainty around her candidacy and negatively impacting her market price.
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins, presidential bid at risk
Marine Le Pen dips to 9%1%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial started in January 2026 to contest her conviction and ban from running in 2027. The trial's outcome is critical for her candidacy and the far-right's electoral prospects.
Jordan Bardella criticizes Trump’s Greenland policy, signaling political distancing
Jordan Bardella jumps to 31%5%
Jordan Bardella publicly denounced U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to Greenland, calling it 'commercial blackmail' and warning against subjugation. This move indicated Bardella’s effort to assert an independent nationalist stance, which helped maintain his market support amid Le Pen’s legal troubles.
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins, threatening 2027 candidacy
Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial started in January 2026, determining whether she would be eligible to run in the 2027 presidential election after her 2025 conviction barred her from public office. This legal uncertainty contributed to her market price decline from 16% to 9%, with her party's leadership shifting support to Jordan Bardella.
Marine Le Pen begins appeal trial against embezzlement conviction
Marine Le Pen started her appeal trial aiming to overturn the conviction that barred her from running for office, creating legal uncertainty around her candidacy and affecting market sentiment.
Jordan Bardella faces legal challenges amid assistant parliamentary funds scandal
Jordan Bardella plunges to 4%30%
Jordan Bardella was implicated in a parliamentary assistants scandal with a trial held in early 2026, leading to a decline in his market price from 34% to 4% by July 2026, reflecting diminished electoral prospects.
Gabriel Attal appointed Prime Minister of France
Gabriel Attal jumps to 16%11%
Gabriel Attal was named Prime Minister in January 2026, becoming the youngest to hold the position. This elevated his national profile and led to a brief increase in his market price.
Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, threatening her 2027 presidential bid
Marine Le Pen drops to 7%9%
Marine Le Pen appeared in court to appeal her conviction for misusing EU funds, with a potential ban from holding office that could prevent her from running in 2027. This legal uncertainty caused her market price to drop sharply, while Jordan Bardella's price rose as he was seen as the likely successor.
Édouard Philippe positions himself as natural successor to Macron
Édouard Philippe, former prime minister and leader in Macron's party Renaissance, worked to establish himself as the natural choice successor to Emmanuel Macron, influencing his market standing.
Edouard Philippe distances himself from Macron, hints at early presidential bid
Edouard Philippe publicly distanced himself from Emmanuel Macron and suggested readiness for an early presidential election, increasing his market support.
Jordan Bardella distances himself from Trump over Greenland tariff dispute
Jordan Bardella drops to 26%5%
Jordan Bardella criticized U.S. President Trump's Greenland tariff threats, signaling a shift in his stance and possibly affecting his support among nationalist voters, reflected in minor price fluctuations.
Dominique de Villepin investigated over gifts received as foreign minister
Dominique de Villepin plunges to 8%33%
Dominique de Villepin was investigated for charges related to gifts received during his tenure as foreign minister, causing a sharp decline in his market price and damaging his presidential prospects.
Dominique de Villepin accelerates preparations for 2027 presidential run
Dominique de Villepin plunges to 10%31%
In mid-December 2025, Dominique de Villepin signed a lease for campaign headquarters in Paris and intensified his campaign organization, signaling serious intent despite low polling. His market price dropped sharply from 41% to 10% reflecting uncertainty about his viability.
Investigation opened into Dominique de Villepin over gifts received as foreign minister
Dominique de Villepin drops to 3%5%
A preliminary investigation was launched against Dominique de Villepin concerning alleged gifts received during his tenure as foreign minister, negatively impacting his presidential prospects and market price.
Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading 2027 presidential race
Jordan Bardella drops to 28%6%
A November 25, 2025 Odoxa poll predicted far-right leader Jordan Bardella would win the next presidential election regardless of opponents, boosting his market probability from 34% to around 28%. This reflected his rising prominence as the National Rally's presumptive candidate after Marine Le Pen's legal ban.
Poll shows far-right leader Jordan Bardella leading 2027 presidential race
Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%
A November 2025 Odoxa poll predicted Jordan Bardella as the frontrunner for the 2027 French presidential election, boosting his market price and establishing him as the dominant far-right figure amid Marine Le Pen's legal troubles.
Poll shows Jordan Bardella as frontrunner for 2027 presidential election
Jordan Bardella drops to 28%6%
A poll by Odoxa indicated Jordan Bardella as the leading candidate for the 2027 election, reflecting his rise after Le Pen's ban. This boosted Bardella's market price as he became the favored far-right candidate.
Dominique de Villepin launches new political party 'Humanist France'
Dominique de Villepin plunges to 3%38%
Former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin announced the creation of a new political party, Humanist France, aiming to unite French citizens across political lines. This announcement caused a sharp drop in his market price from 41% to 3%, reflecting skepticism about his electoral prospects despite his popularity.
No clear dominant candidate emerges in fractured former majority coalition
A report highlighted the lack of a 'natural' candidate dominating the fractured former majority coalition ahead of the 2027 election, reflecting political uncertainty and contributing to market volatility among candidates like Édouard Philippe and others.
Gabriel Attal proposes major pension reform ahead of 2027 election
Gabriel Attal publicly proposed a deep reform of the French pension system, signaling his early positioning for the 2027 presidential race and boosting his profile among voters concerned with social policy.
Marine Le Pen convicted and banned from 2027 presidential run
Marine Le Pen drops to 10%6%
Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement and banned from holding public office for five years, effectively barring her from the 2027 presidential election. This legal setback shifted far-right support towards Jordan Bardella, impacting their market probabilities.
Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading 2027 presidential race
Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%
A poll by Odoxa in November 2025 showed far-right leader Jordan Bardella as the frontrunner for the 2027 French presidential election, boosting his market price and establishing him as a dominant figure despite the crowded field.
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins in Paris over EU funds misuse
Marine Le Pen drops to 11%5%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial opened, raising questions about her eligibility for the 2027 presidential race. The trial's outcome could bar her from running, causing market uncertainty and impacting her and Jordan Bardella's prices.
Dominique de Villepin officially joins the 2027 presidential race
Dominique de Villepin plunges to 8%33%
Dominique de Villepin formally announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, which initially caused a surge in his market price before it declined due to subsequent events and investigations.
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