OpenAI's recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8, 2026, represents the primary catalyst shaping trader views on an IPO timeline, following months of preparatory work with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. CEO Sam Altman has signaled a potential public debut as early as September 2026, aligning with broader moves by AI leaders to access capital amid intense competition in large language models and infrastructure. The shift from nonprofit origins adds structural complexity, though a major pre-IPO funding round at elevated valuations could clear remaining hurdles. Key upcoming milestones include any public filing updates and regulatory feedback, with market-implied odds reflecting trader assessment of execution risks in a fast-evolving sector.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOpenAI publicly confirms confidential S‑1 filing
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
OpenAI announced publicly that it had filed a confidential S‑1, confirming the filing and reiterating that timing was still undefined. The announcement caused a sharp fall in the June‑30 and July‑31 contracts (to ~1‑3 %) while leaving the December‑31 odds relatively unchanged.
OpenAI Confidentially Files for IPO with SEC
December 31, 2026 surges to 73%45%
OpenAI officially announced that it submitted a confidential S-1 draft registration statement to the SEC. While confirming its path toward a public debut, the company noted that timing remained undefined, which collapsed short-term odds but solidified late-2026 expectations.
OpenAI Officially Announces Confidential S-1 IPO Filing with SEC
December 31, 2026 rises to 75%4%
OpenAI officially announced it submitted a confidential S-1 draft registration statement to the SEC. While confirming its path to a public debut, the company noted that timing remains undefined, which solidified late-2026 odds and crushed near-term contracts.
OpenAI Confirms Confidential S-1 Filing for IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 75%5%
OpenAI officially announced that it submitted a confidential S-1 filing to the SEC, while noting that it has not decided on the exact timing yet. This solidified the late 2026 timeline, driving the December 31, 2026 option to 75%.
OpenAI confidentially files S‑1 IPO prospectus with SEC
December 31, 2026 rises to 76%2%
OpenAI filed a confidential S‑1 with the SEC, officially moving toward a public offering. The filing lifted confidence in a late‑2026 IPO, pushing the “December 31 2026” probability to 76 % by June 9, while reducing the short‑term probabilities for earlier dates.
OpenAI Publicly Announces Confidential IPO Filing
OpenAI officially announced that it had submitted a confidential S-1 draft registration statement to the SEC, confirming its path toward a public debut.
OpenAI announces confidential S-1 filing but signals IPO may be delayed
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
OpenAI publicly announced its confidential S-1 filing on June 8, but CEO Sam Altman indicated the IPO might not happen soon, dampening market enthusiasm for near-term IPO dates and causing prices for June 30, 2026, and earlier dates to fall further.
OpenAI CFO signals preference for 2027 IPO due to reporting readiness
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar prefers delaying the IPO to 2027 to ensure public company reporting readiness, casting doubt on a 2026 IPO and contributing to very low market prices for June 30 and July 31, 2026 IPO dates.
OpenAI targets September 2026 public debut amid SEC review process
December 31, 2026 rises to 73%3%
OpenAI is targeting a September 2026 IPO public debut, with the S-1 filing remaining confidential until shortly before the roadshow. Analysts note the possibility of a delay into early 2027 depending on SEC feedback, reflecting cautious market optimism for a late 2026 IPO.
Market speculation grows on OpenAI IPO timing amid Anthropic filing
December 31, 2026 jumps to 46%7%
Following Anthropic's IPO filing, market speculation increased about OpenAI's IPO timing, with traders adjusting expectations and prices reflecting uncertainty but continued confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
Rival AI Giant Anthropic Confidentially Files for U.S. IPO
September 30, 2026 jumps to 43%5%
Anthropic filed its own confidential IPO paperwork, intensifying the race for public capital and keeping pressure on OpenAI's late 2026 timeline, which caused fluctuations in the September 30, 2026 option.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying race with OpenAI
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%5%
Anthropic confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO on June 1, 2026, edging ahead in the race to public markets and increasing competitive pressure on OpenAI. This event contributed to market uncertainty and affected confidence in earlier OpenAI IPO dates.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
September 30, 2026 drops to 37%13%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing increased competitive pressure on OpenAI, contributing to market volatility and skepticism about earlier OpenAI IPO dates, causing a decline in confidence for mid-2026 IPO outcomes.
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork, surpassing OpenAI in valuation
September 30, 2026 drops to 32%6%
Anthropic filed confidential IPO paperwork with a valuation exceeding $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI's $730 billion valuation. This escalated the competitive pressure on OpenAI and influenced market expectations for late 2026 IPOs.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race with OpenAI
Anthropic filed confidentially for a U.S. IPO, increasing competitive pressure on OpenAI and highlighting the crowded AI IPO market expected in late 2026.
Rival Anthropic Confidentially Files for U.S. IPO
September 30, 2026 jumps to 39%7%
AI giant Anthropic confidentially filed for its own U.S. IPO, edging ahead of OpenAI in the race to go public and intensifying market expectations for late 2026 listings.
Rival Anthropic files confidential S‑1, raising competition concerns
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
Anthropic’s own confidential filing on June 1 intensified competition and shifted market focus toward later‑year IPO windows, pulling the "July 31" and "August 31" outcomes down to single‑digit levels.
Anthropic files confidential IPO prospectus, escalating AI IPO competition
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing on June 1 increased pressure on OpenAI, contributing to further declines in market confidence for near-term OpenAI IPO dates such as July 31 and August 31, 2026.
Anthropic files confidential IPO prospectus
Anthropic filed its own confidential IPO prospectus, intensifying the competitive IPO race with OpenAI and impacting market expectations about the timing and valuation of both companies' public offerings.
Anthropic confidentially files U.S. IPO paperwork
August 31, 2026 plunges to 7%39%
Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing was reported on June 1. The rival’s move intensified competition and caused a further drop in confidence for the August 31 and September 30 outcomes, as traders reassessed OpenAI’s timing advantage.
Anthropic Confidentially Files for US IPO, Edging Ahead of OpenAI
September 30, 2026 dips to 41%2%
Rival AI giant Anthropic submitted its own confidential IPO paperwork, intensifying the race to go public and shifting trader sentiment regarding OpenAI's relative timeline.
Rival Anthropic files confidentially for U.S. IPO
September 30, 2026 dips to 35%3%
Anthropic officially filed for its own IPO shortly after OpenAI's filing, intensifying the race for public capital among major AI firms.
Market analysis highlights OpenAI's financial challenges ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 76%6%
By late May 2026, analysts highlighted OpenAI's significant financial losses and a $207 billion funding gap through 2030, raising concerns about IPO timing and valuation. This analysis contributed to market volatility and skepticism about earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI launches $4 billion OpenAI Deployment Company to accelerate enterprise AI adoption
December 31, 2026 surges to 75%47%
OpenAI announced the launch of a new $4 billion subsidiary to help organizations deploy AI systems, signaling strategic expansion and operational scaling ahead of its IPO, positively influencing market sentiment about the company's growth prospects.
SpaceX publicly files IPO prospectus, heightening AI IPO market focus
December 31, 2026 rises to 73%2%
SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus publicly on May 25, 2026, increasing market attention on AI-related IPOs including OpenAI's. This event influenced timing expectations and competitive positioning, reinforcing the likelihood of a later 2026 IPO for OpenAI.
OpenAI launches $4 billion OpenAI Deployment Company to scale enterprise AI
December 31, 2026 surges to 74%42%
The launch of a new subsidiary backed by $4 billion and acquisition of AI consulting firm Tomoro demonstrated OpenAI's operational scaling and enterprise focus, positively influencing market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
Market reacts to Anthropic's confidential IPO filing, intensifying AI IPO race
September 30, 2026 plunges to 29%21%
Anthropic filed confidentially for its own IPO, intensifying competition with OpenAI and causing market volatility. This increased skepticism about earlier OpenAI IPO dates, contributing to declines in confidence for mid-2026 IPO outcomes.
Anthropic closes funding round at $900 billion valuation, intensifying AI IPO race
August 31, 2026 plunges to 4%42%
Anthropic's funding round at a $900 billion valuation heightened competition in the AI IPO space, impacting market sentiment and causing declines in prices for earlier IPO dates like August 31 and July 31, 2026, as investors reassessed OpenAI's timing and prospects.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC
August 31, 2026 drops to 6%8%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential S-1 filing, targeting a late 2026 public listing. This solidified the timeline for late 2026 and collapsed the odds for earlier summer dates.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus targeting Q4 2026 debut
September 30, 2026 surges to 44%17%
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, aiming for a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. The filing marked a significant step toward the IPO but revealed ongoing financial losses and the possibility of a delayed public debut if SEC review raises issues.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
OpenAI officially confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing at a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the deal.
OpenAI Confidentially Files S-1 IPO Prospectus with SEC
December 31, 2026 surges to 75%37%
OpenAI submitted its confidential S-1 filing to the SEC, targeting a late 2026 public listing at a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
September 30, 2026 plunges to 6%40%
OpenAI officially filed its confidential S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing at a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion.
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork, spurring rivalry with OpenAI
September 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Tech industry commentary noted that Anthropic had filed its own confidential IPO paperwork a week earlier, intensifying competition and briefly nudging the “September 30 2026” probability upward before the market refocused on OpenAI’s own filing.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO, targeting September 2026 debut
December 31, 2026 jumps to 76%5%
OpenAI filed a confidential S‑1 with the SEC, confirming the rumor from May 20. The filing cemented expectations of a September IPO, pushing the "December 31, 2026" market to its peak (≈76 %) while further compressing odds for the June‑30 outcome.
OpenAI Prepares to Confidentially File for IPO in Coming Weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%43%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential S-1 filing, shifting expectations away from mid-2026 dates toward late 2026.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing amid legal victory over Elon Musk
September 30, 2026 surges to 65%15%
Following a court ruling dismissing Elon Musk's lawsuit, OpenAI accelerated IPO preparations, filing confidential paperwork with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, signaling strong intent for a September 2026 IPO.
SpaceX files public IPO prospectus, intensifying AI IPO race
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%42%
SpaceX publicly filed its IPO prospectus, disclosing financials and targeting a June 12 Nasdaq debut. This event heightened market focus on AI-related IPOs, including OpenAI's, influencing timing expectations and competitive positioning in the market.
OpenAI said to be preparing confidential IPO filing in coming weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%44%
Multiple outlets reported that OpenAI was preparing to file a confidential S‑1 within days. The news triggered a sharp swing upward for the "December 31, 2026" contract (from ~27 % to ~70 %) and a simultaneous drop for the near‑term dates, as traders reassessed the likelihood of a September debut.
OpenAI prepares to confidentially file for IPO
September 30, 2026 plunges to 33%17%
OpenAI announced it was preparing to file a confidential IPO prospectus, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as underwriters, signaling serious intent to go public.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Prepares to Confidentially File for IPO
September 30, 2026 drops to 43%7%
Major news outlets reported that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026. This shifted expectations away from mid-2026 dates.
OpenAI IPO Preparations Push Near-Term Timelines Down
August 31, 2026 plunges to 10%36%
Reports of a September 2026 target date and internal debates about reporting readiness caused the probability of earlier IPO dates (July and August) to plummet.
OpenAI Prepares Confidential IPO Filing Targeting September Debut
August 31, 2026 plunges to 13%33%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft prospectus for an IPO as early as September 2026. This news made earlier summer timelines highly unlikely, causing July and August options to collapse.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing in coming weeks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 29%9%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO soon, working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, signaling the start of the IPO process and raising market expectations for a late 2026 public debut. This news increased confidence in a Q4 2026 IPO but tempered expectations for earlier dates.
OpenAI prepares to confidentially file IPO prospectus, targeting September debut
Multiple sources including CNBC, Reuters, and The New York Times reported OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, aiming for a public debut in September 2026 with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters.
Reports of September IPO Target Push Out Odds for Earlier Summer Dates
August 31, 2026 plunges to 14%32%
The revelation that OpenAI was targeting a September 2026 public debut made earlier summer timelines highly unlikely, causing the July and August contract prices to collapse.
Reports of OpenAI confidential IPO filing imminent
December 31, 2026 surges to 74%47%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, with filings possibly as soon as that week. This news caused a sharp increase in market confidence for IPO dates in late 2026, especially December 31, 2026, as traders anticipated a public offering soon.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Preparing Confidential IPO Filing for September
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft prospectus for an IPO as early as September 2026, causing summer timelines to collapse.
OpenAI IPO Reports Collapse Shorter-Term July and August Targets
August 31, 2026 plunges to 14%32%
With reports indicating OpenAI was targeting a September or Q4 2026 public debut, shorter-term options like July 31 and August 31 collapsed as they became highly unlikely.
Reports emerge that OpenAI plans confidential IPO filing
September 30, 2026 rises to 52%2%
Media reports revealed that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to file a confidential draft prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September.
SpaceX files S‑1 as OpenAI readies its confidential IPO filing
September 30, 2026 drops to 37%13%
The same day SpaceX filed its S‑1, media highlighted OpenAI’s imminent filing, creating a perception that OpenAI was being eclipsed by SpaceX’s high‑profile debut. This contributed to the steep negative swing for the September 30 outcome on May 21‑22.
Reports Reveal OpenAI is Preparing to Confidentially File for IPO
September 30, 2026 drops to 43%7%
Major news outlets reported that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential IPO filing. The news introduced concrete timelines pointing toward late 2026, causing a sharp decline in the probability of earlier-dated outcomes.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing in coming weeks
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Multiple outlets (NYT, Reuters, CNBC) reported that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file an IPO prospectus in the coming weeks. The news introduced uncertainty about the exact filing date, prompting a sharp decline in the market’s confidence for the earlier‑dated outcomes (June 30, July 31, August 31, September 30).
OpenAI aims for speedy IPO filing soon, targeting September debut
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%4%
Sources confirmed OpenAI's plan to file a draft IPO prospectus soon, aiming for a September public debut, intensifying market expectations and competitive positioning against rivals like Anthropic and SpaceX.
OpenAI September IPO Plans Collapse Odds for Summer Listings
August 31, 2026 plunges to 10%36%
The revelation of a targeted September 2026 IPO date immediately crushed the probability of earlier summer outcomes, such as July and August.
Federal jury throws out Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%44%
A federal jury in Oakland dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal obstacle and prompting analysts to raise the probability of an IPO before the end of 2026. The market’s confidence in a later‑dated IPO surged, lifting the "December 31, 2026" outcome from the high‑20s to over 70 %.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%44%
A federal jury in Oakland dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and its leadership, removing a significant legal obstacle and reducing uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal clarity improved market sentiment, particularly for longer-term IPO dates.
Jury tosses Musk lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%41%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI on May 19. The legal win was cited as a positive catalyst, briefly lifting confidence for the December outcome before the May 20 filing reports reversed the trend.
Jury dismisses Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 75%48%
A federal jury threw out Elon Musk's lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, removing a major legal cloud and opening the window for IPO preparations.
Federal Jury Dismisses Elon Musk's Lawsuit Against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%44%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal hurdle and clearing the path for the company's IPO plans.
No OpenAI S-1 filing as of mid-May 2026 amid IPO speculation
By May 13, 2026, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 registration statement, despite ongoing speculation about a late 2026 IPO. This absence of formal filing reinforced market doubts about a June 30, 2026, IPO, keeping prices low for that outcome.
OpenAI still has no public S‑1 filing as of mid‑May
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Analysts noted that OpenAI still had not filed a public S‑1 as of 13 May 2026, confirming that the IPO timeline remained uncertain. This reinforced market doubts and pushed the June 30 2026 probability down from 3 % on 4 May to 2 % on 10 May.
Bloomberg reports Anthropic's $30 billion raise at $900 billion valuation, intensifying IPO race
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
Bloomberg reported that Anthropic raised $30 billion at a $900 billion valuation, surpassing OpenAI's valuation and creating competitive pressure. This development influenced market sentiment by highlighting the competitive IPO landscape and possibly delaying OpenAI's listing.
Anthropic valuation overtakes OpenAI in $30 bn fundraising talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%4%
Bloomberg reported that Anthropic was in talks to raise at least $30 billion at a valuation over $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s $852 billion mark. The news heightened the perceived competitive pressure on OpenAI’s IPO timing, nudging the Dec 31 2026 probability down from 32 % on 1 May to 28 % on 7 May.
OpenAI Launches $4 Billion Deployment Company and Acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI announced the launch of a new subsidiary backed by $4 billion in capital and agreed to acquire UK-based AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale up enterprise AI deployment capabilities ahead of its public listing.
OpenAI Launches OpenAI Deployment Company with $4 Billion Investment
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI announced a new subsidiary backed by $4 billion and agreed to acquire consulting firm Tomoro to scale up enterprise AI deployment capabilities ahead of its public listing.
OpenAI launches $4 billion AI deployment company and acquires Tomoro
OpenAI announced the formation of the OpenAI Deployment Company with $4 billion in investment and acquired AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale AI deployment, signaling readiness for enterprise expansion ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI Launches $4 Billion Subsidiary and Acquires Consulting Firm Tomoro
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI announced the launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company with a $4 billion investment and the acquisition of Tomoro to accelerate enterprise AI adoption. This strategic expansion signaled operational scaling ahead of its eventual public debut.
OpenAI launches $4 billion deployment company and acquires Tomoro
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
OpenAI announced the launch of a $4 billion deployment subsidiary and the acquisition of AI‑consulting firm Tomoro. The move was interpreted as a push to grow enterprise revenue before an IPO, nudging the market for the July 31 and August 31 outcomes slightly lower as investors questioned cash‑burn.
OpenAI launches new AI deployment company with $4 billion investment and acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%40%
OpenAI formed the OpenAI Deployment Company with $4 billion in capital and acquired AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale AI deployment capabilities, signaling readiness for enterprise expansion and supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
Congressional investigation and employee secondary sales raise IPO risks
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%5%
Reports emerged of a formal Congressional investigation into CEO Sam Altman's investments and $6.6 billion in employee secondary share sales, increasing regulatory and governance risks ahead of the IPO. This contributed to further market price declines.
OpenAI forms OpenAI Deployment Company and acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
In May, OpenAI launched a new joint venture with $4 billion investment and acquired Tomoro to scale AI deployment, signaling readiness for enterprise expansion and supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI launches $4 billion AI deployment company and acquires Tomoro
OpenAI announced the launch of a new AI deployment company backed by $4 billion in capital and acquired AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale AI deployment capabilities. This strategic move signaled operational readiness and enterprise expansion, supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI Launches $4 Billion Deployment Subsidiary and Acquires Tomoro
August 31, 2026 plunges to 8%38%
OpenAI announced the launch of a new subsidiary backed by $4 billion and the acquisition of UK-based AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale up enterprise AI deployment capabilities ahead of its public listing.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI IPO timing amid rival Anthropic's progress
December 31, 2026 dips to 26%1%
Market sentiment turned more cautious as rival Anthropic pursued its own IPO plans for late 2026, and OpenAI's lack of filing fueled doubts about a 2026 IPO, reflected in declining market prices for June and December 2026 outcomes.
No official OpenAI IPO filing or date announced by mid-May 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%
Despite strong revenue growth and structural changes, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 or announced an IPO date by May 10, 2026, causing market prices for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome to decline to near 2%.
Concerns about OpenAI's financial sustainability and missed revenue targets reported
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
Reports highlighted OpenAI missing internal revenue and user growth targets, with CFO Friar privately warning about the risk of not covering massive data center contract costs. These financial concerns dampened market enthusiasm for a near-term IPO, reflected in declining prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
No confirmed IPO date as OpenAI focuses on private funding and growth
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
As of early May 2026, OpenAI had not filed for an IPO or announced a date, continuing to raise private capital and grow revenues, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence for a June 30, 2026 IPO.
OpenAI has no public S-1 filing or confirmed IPO date as of early May 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Despite strong revenue and funding, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 registration statement or announced an IPO date by early May 2026, signaling delays and uncertainty about the IPO timeline, which depressed market prices.
No IPO filing or date announced despite market speculation
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
As of early May 2026, OpenAI had not filed for an IPO nor announced a date, despite ongoing rumors and market speculation. This lack of concrete progress led to further declines in IPO market prices, especially for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI faces competitive and financial hurdles ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%1%
An analysis highlighted mounting financial and competitive challenges for OpenAI as it prepares for its IPO, including intense rivalry with Anthropic and the need for substantial capital investment. This tempered investor enthusiasm, contributing to a decline in the market's probability pricing for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI completes conversion to Public Benefit Corporation, easing IPO structural risks
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%1%
OpenAI finalized its conversion to a Public Benefit Corporation, a legal structure facilitating a public listing while maintaining its mission. This structural change addressed key risks and was seen as a positive step toward an eventual IPO, though no filing or date was announced yet.
OpenAI faces financial and competitive hurdles despite IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
An analysis on May 4, 2026, highlighted OpenAI's structural changes and IPO preparations but noted mounting financial and competitive challenges. This likely contributed to further market caution and price declines for the December 31, 2026, outcome as investors reassessed risks.
OpenAI CFO pushes to delay IPO to 2027 amid financial and operational concerns
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar expressed doubts about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO, citing heavy spending, organizational challenges, and revenue growth concerns. This internal conflict with CEO Altman introduced market skepticism, contributing to a decline in the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome price.
Kalshi market prices near 100% probability for OpenAI IPO announcement by March 1, 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%5%
Kalshi prediction market contracts for an OpenAI IPO announcement by March 1, 2026, reached maximum value, reflecting strong market consensus early in the year, though no IPO announcement occurred by that date, leading to later price adjustments.
Elon Musk lawsuit trial begins against OpenAI, raising IPO uncertainty
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%7%
The trial filed by Elon Musk against OpenAI started, seeking to unwind the company's for-profit structure and remove key executives. This legal overhang introduced significant uncertainty about the IPO timeline and prospects, contributing to a decline in market confidence for earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI revises Microsoft partnership with capped revenue share
OpenAI and Microsoft agreed to cap revenue share payments in late April, clarifying financial arrangements and reducing structural risks ahead of IPO preparations, which influenced market confidence.
Microsoft and OpenAI amend partnership to remove exclusive cloud terms
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
The companies updated their partnership, allowing OpenAI to serve products across any cloud provider and restructuring revenue-sharing mechanics, making OpenAI easier to value as a standalone business.
OpenAI and Microsoft cap revenue share payments amid partnership strain
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%2%
OpenAI and Microsoft agreed to cap revenue share payments through 2030, indicating some strain in their partnership. This development raised questions about OpenAI's financial strategy ahead of an IPO, contributing to market caution.
Reports confirm OpenAI plans Q4 2026 IPO amid $852B valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%3%
Multiple financial news outlets reported that OpenAI is preparing for a blockbuster IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026, targeting a valuation near $1 trillion. Despite strong revenue growth and major bank advisors, no official IPO filing had been made, leading to cautious market sentiment and a slight price decline.
OpenAI IPO expected in Q4 2026, no filing yet
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
On April 26, 2026, reports confirmed OpenAI had not filed IPO paperwork but was targeting a Q4 2026 public listing. This tempered market expectations for a mid-2026 IPO, contributing to price declines for June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026, outcomes as investors adjusted timelines.
Sam Altman faces scrutiny over conflicts ahead of OpenAI IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 39%4%
Reports emerged that CEO Sam Altman faced criticism for potential conflicts of interest involving personal investments, raising internal unease. Despite this, OpenAI's IPO remained on track, but the news introduced some uncertainty reflected in market fluctuations for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signals IPO filing targeted for second half of 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Statements from CFO Sarah Friar about targeting a regulatory filing in H2 2026 and a potential 2027 listing tempered early 2026 market optimism for an earlier IPO, causing some price decline for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI converts to public benefit corporation, removing IPO structural barriers
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%2%
In April 2026, OpenAI's conversion to a public benefit corporation eliminated nonprofit-related IPO obstacles, signaling readiness for public markets and supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI acquires personal finance startup Hiro Finance
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%3%
OpenAI acquired Hiro Finance, a personal finance startup, signaling strategic expansion and strengthening its AI capabilities ahead of its IPO. This acquisition indicated operational growth but had limited direct impact on IPO timing.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO filing targeted for second half of 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar communicated internally that the company aims to file regulatory paperwork for an IPO in the second half of 2026, with a potential public listing in 2027. This announcement reinforced market anticipation but also suggested the IPO might slip beyond 2026, contributing to price stabilization and slight declines.
OpenAI launches $100‑per‑month ChatGPT Pro plan
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
OpenAI announced a new $100‑per‑month ChatGPT Pro tier on 9 April 2026, adding a premium subscription tier and a promotional 10× Codex boost through 31 May. The rollout raised concerns that the company was shifting focus to monetisation rather than an IPO, prompting the market’s probability for a Q4 2026 listing (Dec 31 2026 outcome) to fall from 36 % on 9 Apr to 31 % on 28 Apr.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar discusses compute constraints and Microsoft partnership
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%5%
In an interview, CFO Sarah Friar highlighted ongoing challenges and strategic partnerships, emphasizing that an IPO was not the company's current focus, which tempered market expectations for a near-term IPO.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Announces Retail Share Allocation for Upcoming IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%4%
CFO Sarah Friar confirmed that OpenAI will reserve a portion of its IPO shares for retail investors, stating it is good hygiene to act like a public company, boosting confidence in a 2026 listing.
OpenAI CFO confirms retail investor allocation for upcoming IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 43%4%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve shares for retail investors in its IPO, signaling preparation for a public offering and increasing market confidence in a 2026 IPO, particularly for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Internal CFO concerns surface over 2026 IPO readiness
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about organizational unpreparedness and procedural gaps for a 2026 IPO, contrasting with CEO Sam Altman's aggressive push for a Q4 2026 listing. This internal tension introduced uncertainty about the IPO timing.
OpenAI CFO announces allocation of IPO shares to retail investors
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%5%
CFO Sarah Friar stated OpenAI will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparation for a public offering. However, she did not confirm a timeline, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the IPO date.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signals IPO delay concerns amid financial scrutiny
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%11%
CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about OpenAI's readiness for a 2026 IPO, citing cash burn and revenue trajectory issues. Her caution contrasted with CEO Sam Altman's push for a 2026 listing, causing market uncertainty and price declines.
OpenAI CFO says IPO will include retail‑investor share allocation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
CFO Sarah Friar told CNBC that OpenAI will allocate a slice of its IPO shares to retail investors and hinted that a listing could occur in the fourth quarter of 2026. The explicit retail‑share plan revived optimism and pushed the market back up for the December‑2026 outcome.
IPO market conditions remain challenging despite OpenAI's IPO plans
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Despite OpenAI's anticipated IPO, the broader IPO market in early 2026 was slower than expected, with selective exits and some delays, contributing to a decline in market confidence for a June 30, 2026 IPO.
IPO market crowded with SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic in 2026
Market reports highlighted a crowded 2026 IPO window with OpenAI aiming for a late 2026 listing alongside SpaceX and Anthropic, raising concerns about investor capital allocation and IPO timing risks.
OpenAI CFO says company not ready for 2026 IPO
July 31, 2026 plunges to 2%24%
Reuters cited that the CFO warned the company was not ready for a 2026 IPO, contradicting the CEO’s timeline. The “July 31 2026” and “August 31 2026” probabilities collapsed to under 5 % after the story.
OpenAI Reshuffles Leadership as COO Shifts Out of Role and AGI CEO Takes Medical Leave
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
A major leadership shakeup occurred at OpenAI with the COO shifting roles and two key executives taking medical leave, raising execution concerns ahead of its planned IPO.
OpenAI COO shifts role, AGI CEO on medical leave
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Bloomberg reported that OpenAI’s COO stepped down and the AGI division CEO took medical leave, creating leadership uncertainty. The market’s “June 30 2026” probability fell from 6 % to 3 % the following week.
OpenAI experiences leadership shakeup with COO role change and key executives on leave
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%7%
The simultaneous departure and leaves of several top executives raised concerns about OpenAI's operational stability ahead of its IPO, causing market uncertainty and a dip in confidence for near-term IPO dates.
OpenAI acquires tech podcast TBPN to expand strategic communications
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%4%
OpenAI acquired TBPN, a tech podcast, to enhance its communication strategy and public engagement ahead of its IPO. This acquisition reflected efforts to manage public perception and investor relations as the IPO approached, though it had limited direct impact on IPO timing.
OpenAI acquires streaming show TBPN to influence AI narrative
OpenAI's acquisition of TBPN in early April was a strategic marketing move to shape public perception of AI, reflecting broader corporate positioning ahead of IPO but with limited direct impact on IPO timing.
OpenAI acquires media show TBPN
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%2%
OpenAI disclosed the acquisition of the tech‑talk show TBPN, a move framed as a branding and communications effort ahead of a potential IPO. The news gave a modest boost to the June 30, 2026 outcome, raising its price from 3 % on Mar 7 to 5 % on Apr 5.
OpenAI converts to public benefit corporation, removing IPO structural barriers
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
OpenAI's April 2026 conversion to a public benefit corporation removed nonprofit-related barriers to going public, facilitating a traditional IPO. This structural change was a key step toward a potential late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI shuts down standalone Sora app amid strategic shift ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%6%
OpenAI discontinued its Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, signaling strategic focus ahead of a potential IPO. This raised concerns about growth prospects, contributing to market price declines.
SpaceX files confidential S-1, intensifying 2026 mega-IPO pipeline
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing and planned June 2026 roadshow highlighted the competitive IPO environment, indirectly affecting OpenAI's market by increasing pressure and investor focus on mega tech IPOs in 2026.
SpaceX files confidential S-1, intensifying 2026 mega-IPO pipeline
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing on April 1, 2026, highlighted the intense competition in the 2026 IPO market, indirectly impacting OpenAI's IPO timing expectations. The focus on SpaceX's June roadshow may have contributed to market skepticism about an earlier OpenAI IPO, pressuring June 30, 2026, prices downward.
OpenAI converts to public benefit corporation, removing IPO structural barriers
December 31, 2026 dips to 50%3%
OpenAI's April 2026 conversion to a public benefit corporation addressed previous nonprofit-related IPO obstacles, increasing market confidence in a late 2026 IPO and supporting price stability for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in record‑size round, valuation jumps to $852 billion
December 31, 2026 surges to 55%25%
OpenAI closed a $122 billion funding round, the largest ever in Silicon Valley, boosting its valuation to $852 billion. The massive capital raise revived confidence that the company could sustain growth and reinforced expectations of a late‑2026 IPO, driving the price up sharply in February‑March (from ~30 % to a high of 55 %).
OpenAI closes record $122B funding round at $852B valuation
OpenAI finalized a historic $122 billion funding round, increasing its valuation to $852 billion. This milestone intensified speculation about a forthcoming IPO and put pressure on CEO Sam Altman to justify the valuation ahead of a potential public offering.
OpenAI closes record-breaking $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%10%
OpenAI extended its funding round to $122 billion, raising its valuation to $852 billion. This historic capital infusion reinforced expectations for a blockbuster IPO in late 2026, supporting the market's rising price for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI announces $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
OpenAI disclosed a massive $122 billion funding round with an $852 billion post-money valuation, signaling strong private market support but no confirmed IPO date, which initially boosted market optimism for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
OpenAI announced a massive funding round on March 31, 2026, at an $852 billion post-money valuation, signaling strong private market support but no IPO filing yet. This reinforced expectations for a late 2026 IPO but did not confirm a specific date, causing moderate market optimism.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 39%1%
OpenAI announced the close of a massive $122 billion funding round, boosting its valuation to $852 billion. This event heightened expectations for a 2026 IPO by demonstrating strong investor confidence and financial backing, temporarily increasing market optimism for a near-term public offering.
SoftBank secures $40B loan to support OpenAI investment
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%8%
SoftBank took a $40 billion unsecured loan with a 12-month term to cover its $30 billion commitment to OpenAI's funding round, implying confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects within the year to provide liquidity for repayment.
OpenAI to acquire developer‑tool startup Astral
December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%7%
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Astral, a developer‑tools startup, positioning the move as part of a push to strengthen its Codex coding assistant. The announcement coincided with the market’s second‑largest rally for the December 31, 2026 outcome, lifting the price from 44 % on Mar 14 to 51 % on Mar 24.
OpenAI prepares for IPO in 2026, focusing on enterprise growth
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%7%
CNBC reported OpenAI could debut on public markets as soon as Q4 2026, with the company emphasizing enterprise business growth and clearer spending targets, which briefly boosted market optimism for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI renews focus on enterprise amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%5%
Reports in March 2026 indicated OpenAI was preparing for a potential IPO later that year while emphasizing enterprise growth and clearer spending targets, which briefly boosted market optimism for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI prepares for IPO, emphasizes ChatGPT as productivity tool
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%6%
OpenAI publicly indicated preparations for a potential IPO in late 2026, focusing on enterprise growth and positioning ChatGPT as a productivity tool. This announcement reinforced the company's IPO timeline but also highlighted competitive pressures and spending discipline challenges.
OpenAI Preps for Potential 2026 IPO with Renewed Focus on Enterprise Business
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
Reports indicated that OpenAI is gearing up for a potential IPO that could land as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026, while shifting its focus toward enterprise productivity tools.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO as ChatGPT pivots to enterprise applications
OpenAI publicly indicated a strategic shift focusing on enterprise customers and preparing for a Q4 2026 IPO, reinforcing market expectations for a late-year public offering.
OpenAI Preps for IPO in 2026 with Focus on Enterprise Productivity
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%3%
Reports confirmed that OpenAI is gearing up for a potential IPO that could land as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026, while aggressively orienting ChatGPT toward high-productivity enterprise use cases.
OpenAI signals potential Q4 2026 IPO amid enterprise pivot
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%2%
OpenAI's CEO of Applications, Fidji Simo, announced an aggressive shift towards enterprise productivity tools and confirmed the company could debut on public markets as soon as Q4 2026. This announcement heightened market expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI spokesperson reiterates IPO not current focus despite preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
Despite ongoing preparations and market speculation, OpenAI publicly stated that an IPO is not their current focus and no date has been set, reinforcing uncertainty and contributing to the market discounting earlier IPO dates in favor of later possibilities.
OpenAI acquires AI security platform Promptfoo
OpenAI's acquisition of Promptfoo in early March enhanced its AI security capabilities, signaling operational scaling but not directly impacting IPO timing, thus having moderate market influence.
OpenAI acquires cybersecurity startup Promptfoo to secure AI agents
December 31, 2026 dips to 38%4%
OpenAI acquired Promptfoo, a cybersecurity startup focused on protecting AI agents, enhancing its enterprise AI platform security. This move was part of OpenAI's broader strategy to strengthen its product offerings before going public, supporting a positive market outlook.
Investor skepticism grows over OpenAI's high valuation and profitability ahead of IPO
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports highlighted investor concerns about OpenAI's high valuation and ongoing cash burn, tempering enthusiasm and causing a decline in market pricing for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI IPO timing amid cash burn concerns
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%2%
Investor concerns about OpenAI's high cash burn and uncertain profitability path led to a sharp decline in the market's perceived likelihood of a mid-2026 IPO, reflected in the June 30, 2026 price falling to near 2-4%. This indicated growing doubts about an IPO happening by mid-2026.
OpenAI confirms $110 billion valuation, eyes largest US tech IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 49%5%
Following the funding announcement, OpenAI confirmed its $110 billion valuation, positioning it for potentially the largest US tech IPO ever, which sustained high market interest in the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI raises $110 billion at $730 billion valuation in largest private funding round
December 31, 2026 surges to 55%23%
OpenAI secured $110 billion in new investment, including $50 billion from Amazon, pushing its valuation to $730 billion. This massive funding round underscored the company's capital needs and delayed urgency for an IPO.
OpenAI raises $110 billion in funding led by Amazon, SoftBank, and Nvidia
December 31, 2026 surges to 46%18%
The massive funding round at a $730 billion valuation bolstered OpenAI's financial position ahead of its IPO, signaling strong investor confidence and supporting expectations for a late 2026 public offering.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%12%
OpenAI announced a massive funding round in late February, boosting its valuation and signaling strong financial backing ahead of a potential IPO, which increased market confidence in a late 2026 listing.
OpenAI closes $110 billion funding round at $730 billion pre-money valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 42%16%
OpenAI announced a massive $110 billion funding round led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, boosting its valuation to $730 billion pre-money and $840 billion post-money. This record funding round underscored investor confidence and set the stage for a potential IPO later in 2026, driving up market optimism for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI updates partnership with Microsoft and reports strong revenue growth
December 31, 2026 surges to 44%18%
OpenAI revised its partnership with Microsoft and reported $2 billion monthly revenue, with enterprise revenue growing rapidly. Despite strong fundamentals, no IPO filing was made, sustaining market uncertainty and price volatility.
OpenAI Confirms $110 Billion Funding Round at $730 Billion Pre-Money Valuation
OpenAI confirmed a massive $110 billion funding round with backing from major tech giants, solidifying its financial foundation ahead of its public market ambitions.
OpenAI announces $110 billion funding round at $730 billion pre-money valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%10%
OpenAI disclosed a massive funding round including investments from Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank, boosting valuation and market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, reflected in a price jump for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Nvidia nears $30 billion investment in OpenAI during fundraising round
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%8%
Nvidia's planned $30 billion investment in OpenAI as part of a $100 billion+ fundraising round underscored OpenAI's ongoing capital needs ahead of a potential IPO, influencing market perceptions of the company's financial strategy.
OpenAI shuts down Sora video app to sharpen focus on enterprise ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 44%5%
OpenAI announced the shutdown of its standalone Sora video‑generation app, signalling a strategic shift toward enterprise products ahead of the IPO. The news coincided with a modest price uptick in early February as investors interpreted the move as a focus on higher‑margin revenue streams.
OpenAI acquires OpenClaw, signaling shift to AI agents
December 31, 2026 rises to 42%1%
OpenAI's acquisition of OpenClaw and hiring of its creator indicated a strategic pivot towards AI agents and workflow orchestration, reflecting ongoing innovation but no direct IPO timing confirmation, maintaining market caution.
OpenAI acquires OpenClaw to enhance AI agent capabilities
December 31, 2026 surges to 54%22%
OpenAI acquired OpenClaw, an AI agent startup, signaling a strategic investment in autonomous AI workflows ahead of its IPO. This acquisition demonstrated OpenAI's commitment to expanding its AI ecosystem, positively influencing market views on its growth prospects.
OpenAI's market optimism surges on IPO speculation and fundraising
December 31, 2026 surges to 55%21%
Market prices for the December 31, 2026 IPO option surged sharply as investors reacted to ongoing fundraising efforts and positive speculation about OpenAI's IPO prospects in late 2026.
OpenAI initiates $100 billion fundraising to fill funding gap before IPO
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
OpenAI began a major fundraising effort to raise $100 billion in early 2026 to support its massive capital expenditures and extend runway before an IPO. This financial pressure contributed to market skepticism about an imminent IPO, especially for the June 30, 2026 outcome, which saw prices drop significantly.
OpenAI pivots ChatGPT to enterprise productivity ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%7%
OpenAI’s internal all‑hands meeting emphasized a shift toward enterprise revenue and signaled that ChatGPT would be marketed as a productivity tool, reinforcing the IPO narrative and contributing to a sharp price jump on Jan 30 (from 32 % to 39 %).
OpenAI plans Q4 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising and cash burn concerns
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports indicated OpenAI was racing toward a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO to raise capital amid billions in annual cash burn, testing investor tolerance for the AI boom. This news maintained some market interest but also highlighted financial risks.
Reports of OpenAI racing toward Q4 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was accelerating preparations for a late 2026 IPO, including informal talks with Wall Street banks and hiring finance executives, driven by competition with Anthropic and the need to address cash burn. This news caused some price volatility and reflected ongoing uncertainty about timing.
WSJ says OpenAI is preparing for a Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%29%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI was "laying the groundwork" for a fourth‑quarter 2026 IPO and had begun informal talks with Wall Street banks. The story sparked a dramatic surge in market confidence, pushing the Yes price for the December 31, 2026 outcome from 27 % on Jan 9 to a peak of 56 % on Jan 30.
OpenAI announces plans for a Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 28%5%
OpenAI publicly revealed intentions to pursue an initial public offering in the fourth quarter of 2026, setting the market's initial expectations for a late-year listing. This announcement increased speculation and trading activity around the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
Reports Reveal OpenAI is Targeting a Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%25%
Reports emerged indicating that OpenAI was actively planning a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO, aiming for a $1 trillion valuation, which revived investor optimism for a late 2026 listing.
OpenAI announces plan for fourth‑quarter 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%7%
A Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI planned a fourth‑quarter IPO raised expectations for a late‑2026 listing, briefly lifting the “December 31 2026” probability before it fell again as investors awaited concrete timing.
OpenAI lays groundwork for fourth-quarter 2026 IPO, begins talks with Wall Street banks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 32%6%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI was preparing for a potential IPO in Q4 2026, including hiring finance officers and engaging in informal discussions with banks, which boosted market confidence in a year-end IPO.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman frames $1 trillion infrastructure spend underpinning IPO case
December 31, 2026 jumps to 32%5%
Sam Altman's January 2026 Stargate announcement video emphasized the massive $600 billion compute infrastructure investment over five years, reinforcing investor confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects and driving up market prices for late 2026 IPO outcomes.
OpenAI CFO confirms retail investor allocation plans for IPO
CFO Sarah Friar stated OpenAI will reserve shares for retail investors, signaling serious IPO preparations and boosting confidence in a late 2026 listing. Enterprise revenue growth also supported the company's valuation case.
OpenAI CFO stresses public‑company hygiene ahead of potential 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%6%
During a Davos interview, Sarah Friar emphasized the public‑company‑like governance and hinted at an IPO “later this year,” reinforcing the market’s belief that the December‑2026 deadline was plausible and helping sustain the price rebound after the March funding news.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO readiness concerns and spending risks
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed doubts about OpenAI being ready for a 2026 IPO due to spending commitments and uncertain revenue growth, contributing to further market price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
Reports indicate OpenAI targets $60 billion capital raise, IPO preparations continue for late 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
FinancialContent reported OpenAI's plans to raise significant capital to fund AI ambitions, with IPO preparations ongoing and a likely filing in the second half of 2026, supporting the market's view of a late 2026 IPO but not earlier dates.
OpenAI shuts down Sora video app amid strategic shift towards IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 25%3%
OpenAI discontinued its standalone Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, as part of a broader strategic realignment ahead of a potential 2026 IPO. This move was seen as a step to streamline operations and focus on core AI products, impacting investor perceptions of IPO readiness.
Reports highlight 2026 as potential year for OpenAI IPO amid tech IPO resurgence
December 31, 2026 dips to 26%4%
Media reports in mid-January 2026 emphasized that OpenAI, along with SpaceX and Anthropic, could go public in 2026, fueling investor anticipation and contributing to early market pricing for OpenAI's IPO by year-end.
Reports highlight 2026 as year of mega IPOs including OpenAI
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%2%
The New York Times and other outlets reported that 2026 is shaping up as a landmark year for mega IPOs with OpenAI among the top tech companies preparing to go public. This reinforced market anticipation but also uncertainty about exact timing, contributing to continued price declines.
New York Times highlights 2026 as year of mega IPOs including OpenAI
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%6%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was among the top tech companies preparing for a 2026 IPO, emphasizing its massive spending plans and valuation near $500 billion to $1 trillion. This reinforced market anticipation but also highlighted the company's high cash burn, contributing to mixed market sentiment.
Market uncertainty grows amid mega IPOs planned for 2026 including OpenAI
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%5%
Reports in early 2026 highlighted that OpenAI, along with SpaceX and Anthropic, is preparing for a mega IPO in 2026 or 2027, but market uncertainty and cautious investor sentiment led to further declines in IPO probability prices, especially for mid-2026 dates.
New York Times reports OpenAI CEO Sam Altman 'zero percent' excited about IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
Sam Altman expressed reluctance about leading a public company despite acknowledging the need for more funding, which dampened market enthusiasm and contributed to lower IPO outcome prices.
Reports highlight OpenAI's potential 2026 IPO amid AI market excitement
News coverage in mid-January emphasized OpenAI as a leading AI company likely to pursue an IPO in 2026, fueling market optimism and contributing to early price increases for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI acquires health-care tech startup Torch amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%6%
OpenAI's acquisition of Torch reflects continued strategic growth and investment in AI capabilities, reinforcing the company's long-term plans but not indicating an imminent IPO, contributing to market price declines.
OpenAI closes historic $6.6B funding round, valuation hits $150B
OpenAI secured a $6.6 billion funding round, marking a major private capital milestone and signaling continued reliance on private funding rather than an imminent IPO, which dampened market IPO probabilities.
OpenAI sets aside $50B employee stock grant pool amid funding talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%
Reuters reported OpenAI reserved a $50 billion stock grant pool and was in talks to raise funds at a $750 billion valuation, indicating ongoing private funding efforts and delaying IPO expectations.
Bloomberg highlights mixed feelings from OpenAI CEO about going public in 2026
June 30, 2026 jumps to 16%6%
Bloomberg reported that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expressed ambivalence about an IPO, reflecting internal uncertainty and contributing to cautious market pricing for the 2026 IPO outcomes.
SoftBank completes $41 billion investment in OpenAI
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%5%
SoftBank finalized a $41 billion investment in OpenAI, one of the largest private funding rounds, reinforcing confidence in OpenAI's valuation and future IPO prospects. This significant capital injection supported OpenAI's infrastructure and growth plans, affecting market expectations.
OpenAI in talks to raise $100B at $830B valuation amid IPO rumors
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
The Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI's talks to raise $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation, signaling ongoing capital needs but also cooling investor enthusiasm about a near-term IPO, contributing to price declines.
Reports reveal OpenAI discussed raising tens of billions at about $750 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
Reports indicated OpenAI was preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever, with a potential valuation up to $1 trillion and filing possibly in the second half of 2026. This reinforced the market's view of a late 2026 or 2027 IPO, but uncertainty about timing kept prices subdued.
OpenAI raises $122 billion to fund AI ambitions
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
OpenAI announced a massive $122 billion capital raise to support its AI development and infrastructure, indicating ongoing cash burn and the need for substantial funding before an IPO, which tempered near-term IPO expectations.
OpenAI agrees to acquire AI startup Neptune to boost capabilities
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
OpenAI announced acquisition of Neptune, a startup providing AI model training tools, signaling ongoing expansion and strengthening before IPO. This acquisition indicated OpenAI's growth strategy and may have influenced market sentiment about its readiness for public offering.
OpenAI acquires AI startup Neptune to boost capabilities ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
OpenAI acquired Neptune, signaling ongoing expansion and preparation for a public offering, but also highlighting the company's focus on growth rather than immediate IPO timing, which maintained market uncertainty.
OpenAI agrees to acquire Neptune to boost AI model training capabilities
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
OpenAI announced acquisition of AI startup Neptune, signaling focus on growth and technology development rather than immediate IPO, which contributed to market uncertainty about IPO timing.
OpenAI restructures and raises $122 billion to fund AI ambitions
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
OpenAI completed a major capital raise of $122 billion to accelerate AI development and infrastructure, signaling the need for substantial funding before an IPO. This bolstered the company's financial position but also highlighted ongoing cash burn, influencing cautious market sentiment about a near-term IPO.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
Elon Musk's federal lawsuit alleging misconduct by OpenAI's leadership was dismissed due to delay in filing, removing a significant legal risk for OpenAI's IPO plans. This dismissal improved market sentiment, particularly for longer-term IPO dates, as legal uncertainties diminished.
Secondary share sales imply OpenAI valuation exceeding $500 billion
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%38%
Secondary sales in late 2025 implied valuations around $500 billion, tempering some IPO enthusiasm and causing a sharp drop in the June 30, 2026 outcome price, reflecting doubts about a near-term IPO.
Market skepticism grows amid lack of concrete IPO timeline
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%6%
Despite ongoing IPO speculation, no official filing or date was announced, leading to a decline in market confidence about a 2026 IPO, reflected in price drops for June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026 outcomes.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI's 2026 IPO prospects
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Following initial IPO optimism, market prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome dropped sharply, reflecting investor doubts about OpenAI's ability to go public that soon amid high cash burn and fundraising needs.
OpenAI spokesperson states IPO is not the company's focus, casting doubt on 2026 listing
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Following earlier reports, OpenAI clarified that an IPO is not their current focus and no date has been set, tempering market enthusiasm and contributing to a decline in IPO probability prices for mid-2026 dates.
Analysts express skepticism about OpenAI IPO happening in 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%44%
Reports and expert opinions emerged suggesting that OpenAI might delay or never conduct an IPO in 2026 due to the need for massive revenue growth and financial commitments, contributing to a sharp drop in market confidence for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI's IPO prospects dampened amid market uncertainty and legal risks
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Following initial IPO plans, concerns about ongoing copyright lawsuits and competitive pressures emerged, causing investor skepticism and a sharp drop in the June 30, 2026 IPO probability from 47% to 10%.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in largest private funding round
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
OpenAI closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, the largest ever in Silicon Valley, which raised questions about the immediate need for an IPO and contributed to a sharp drop in IPO market prices for mid-2026.
Reports question likelihood of OpenAI IPO in 2026 despite groundwork
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%6%
Media reports and analysts expressed skepticism about OpenAI going public in 2026 due to massive capital needs and profitability challenges, leading to a decline in market prices for IPO outcomes.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in largest capital raise ever
December 31, 2026 jumps to 16%6%
OpenAI announced a massive $122 billion funding round to support its AI ambitions and cover cash burn, increasing the likelihood of an IPO in 2026 to raise more capital despite ongoing losses.
OpenAI CFO expresses doubts about 2026 IPO readiness
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
CFO Sarah Friar reportedly expressed concerns about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO, citing risks from spending commitments and organizational unpreparedness. This internal disagreement with CEO Sam Altman dampened market confidence, leading to a sharp drop in the June 30, 2026 IPO probability.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar States IPO is Not in Near-Term Plans
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%38%
OpenAI's newly appointed CFO Sarah Friar cooled immediate public listing expectations by stating that an IPO is not on the cards right now, focusing instead on scaling the company's operations.
Sam Altman expresses ambivalence about OpenAI going public soon
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
Altman stated he had no specific timeline for an IPO and expressed mixed feelings about being CEO of a public company, which contributed to market uncertainty and declining IPO price probabilities.
OpenAI IPO Odds Collapse as No Near-Term Public Listing Materializes
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
At the start of the analysis window, the market experienced a sharp downward correction. The June 30, 2026 option plummeted by 36 points as traders realized that despite ongoing speculation, there was no official timeline or S-1 filing planned for the near term.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says IPO is the 'most likely' path but no set date
June 30, 2026 drops to 38%9%
Sam Altman acknowledged that an IPO is the most likely path for OpenAI given capital needs but emphasized no specific date has been set, tempering market enthusiasm and introducing uncertainty about timing.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirms IPO is likely but no set date
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO is the most likely path for OpenAI given capital needs but emphasized no set date has been established, tempering market expectations for a near-term IPO.
OpenAI Lays Groundwork for Trillion-Dollar IPO Slated for Late 2026 or 2027
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI is laying the groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, with potential filing as early as the second half of 2026, though CFO Sarah Friar has reportedly aimed for 2027.
OpenAI targets IPO as soon as late 2026 amid restructuring
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Multiple reports including Forbes and SiliconANGLE confirmed OpenAI's plans for an IPO potentially in late 2026 or 2027, following its restructuring into a public benefit corporation. The company emphasized that an IPO is not the current focus, but market speculation increased on the timing and valuation, impacting market prices.
OpenAI confirms IPO plans targeting late 2026 or 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%6%
OpenAI publicly acknowledged IPO plans with CFO Sarah Friar mentioning a 2027 target but advisers predicting late 2026. The company emphasized that an IPO is not the current focus, adding uncertainty to timing.
OpenAI CFO signals possible 2027 IPO, some advisers suggest late 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%11%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar indicated a 2027 IPO target, but some advisers predicted a possible late 2026 listing, creating mixed market expectations and contributing to price volatility across outcomes.
OpenAI restructures as Public Benefit Corporation enabling IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
OpenAI converted from a nonprofit-controlled capped-profit entity into a Public Benefit Corporation in October 2025, removing structural barriers to a traditional IPO and signaling serious intent to go public.
OpenAI completes restructuring into public benefit corporation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
OpenAI announced a corporate restructure converting from nonprofit to a public benefit corporation, reducing reliance on Microsoft and enabling a path to IPO. This structural change was a key step toward going public and influenced market expectations positively.
OpenAI spokesperson states IPO is not current focus, no set date
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
Following IPO rumors, OpenAI officially stated that an IPO is not their focus and no date has been set, injecting caution into the market and causing a pullback in IPO likelihood prices.
OpenAI CFO signals 2027 IPO target but advisors suggest late 2026 possible
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%13%
Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar indicated a 2027 IPO target, but some advisors predicted a possible earlier IPO in late 2026, adding uncertainty and mixed signals to the market.
OpenAI announces corporate restructure and partnership updates
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
OpenAI completed a complex restructuring, establishing a nonprofit arm holding 26% stake and Microsoft holding 27%, signaling preparation for a public offering. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 or 2027 IPO.
OpenAI Reportedly Lays Groundwork for Trillion-Dollar IPO as Early as Late 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI is considering filing for an IPO as soon as the second half of 2026, though CFO Sarah Friar suggested 2027 might be more realistic. This news pushed expectations away from an early 2026 debut toward late 2026 or 2027.
OpenAI converts to Public Benefit Corporation, clearing path to IPO
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%41%
The same day OpenAI announced its conversion from a nonprofit‑controlled capped‑profit entity into a Public Benefit Corporation, making a traditional IPO legally possible. The structural change reinforced market expectations of a future listing and contributed to the early rally that later reversed.
OpenAI signals early‑2026 IPO filing, targeting up to $1 trillion valuation
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%39%
Reuters reported that OpenAI was laying groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion and might file in the second half of 2026. The news sparked a sharp swing in market sentiment – the price rose to a 64 % peak on the same day and then fell dramatically over the next few days as investors digested the uncertainty around timing and valuation.
OpenAI announces plans for IPO as soon as late 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%2%
Forbes reported OpenAI's plans for an IPO possibly in late 2026 to fund its massive AI infrastructure buildout, reinforcing market expectations for a 2026-2027 IPO window.
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