Trader consensus on Polymarket positions total April precipitation in Seoul below 40mm at 49.5% implied probability, driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observations showing exceptionally low accumulation through mid-April amid persistent high-pressure systems that have delivered record warmth and mostly sunny conditions. Historical April averages hover at 65-80mm with about 5-8 rain days, but this month's dry anomaly—exacerbated by early spring heatwaves reaching 27°C—has suppressed typical frontal rainfall, with only scattered showers around April 4-5 contributing minimally. KMA short-range forecasts suggest limited remaining precipitation potential, though model ensembles indicate uncertainty in late-month yellow dust events or weak fronts that could add 10-20mm; traders weigh these against the halfway mark's meager totals.