Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the confirmed absence of critical red-level incidents at Discord and Cloudflare through the March 31, 2026, resolution window, per their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although AWS experienced a qualifying "disrupted" severity outage in early March—stemming from drone strikes on ME-CENTRAL-1 data centers impacting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the parlay requires all three services to hit thresholds simultaneously, which failed due to clean records at the other providers. This skin-in-the-game assessment prioritizes verifiable dashboard data over speculation. Realistic tail risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though historical precedents favor prompt "No" resolution absent new evidence.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоУслуги Down Parlay
Услуги Down Parlay
Да
$14,115 Объем
$14,115 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
Да
$14,115 Объем
$14,115 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the confirmed absence of critical red-level incidents at Discord and Cloudflare through the March 31, 2026, resolution window, per their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although AWS experienced a qualifying "disrupted" severity outage in early March—stemming from drone strikes on ME-CENTRAL-1 data centers impacting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the parlay requires all three services to hit thresholds simultaneously, which failed due to clean records at the other providers. This skin-in-the-game assessment prioritizes verifiable dashboard data over speculation. Realistic tail risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though historical precedents favor prompt "No" resolution absent new evidence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Открытие рынка: Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Объем
$14,115Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the confirmed absence of critical red-level incidents at Discord and Cloudflare through the March 31, 2026, resolution window, per their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although AWS experienced a qualifying "disrupted" severity outage in early March—stemming from drone strikes on ME-CENTRAL-1 data centers impacting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the parlay requires all three services to hit thresholds simultaneously, which failed due to clean records at the other providers. This skin-in-the-game assessment prioritizes verifiable dashboard data over speculation. Realistic tail risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though historical precedents favor prompt "No" resolution absent new evidence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Объем
$14,115Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the confirmed absence of critical red-level incidents at Discord and Cloudflare through the March 31, 2026, resolution window, per their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although AWS experienced a qualifying "disrupted" severity outage in early March—stemming from drone strikes on ME-CENTRAL-1 data centers impacting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the parlay requires all three services to hit thresholds simultaneously, which failed due to clean records at the other providers. This skin-in-the-game assessment prioritizes verifiable dashboard data over speculation. Realistic tail risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though historical precedents favor prompt "No" resolution absent new evidence.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы