Redistricting in May 2026 by Tennessee Republicans significantly altered the Memphis-based Ninth District, prompting longtime U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen to withdraw from the race and creating an open Democratic primary on August 6. Justin Pearson, the state representative who had already challenged the incumbent, now leads as the consensus frontrunner at 80.5% implied probability, bolstered by endorsements from a majority of his House Democratic colleagues and established name recognition from prior legislative activism. Community activist DeVante Hill remains a distant second at 11.2%, drawing support in localized pockets of the expanded district. Cohen’s 3.5% price reflects his confirmed exit despite earlier polling tightness. The outcome hinges on turnout and field dynamics among the remaining candidates through the filing and campaign period.