Pope Leo XIV’s sustained emphasis on deepening the Church’s reception of Vatican II through ongoing catecheses and a new note marking the 60th anniversary of Nostra Aetate has anchored trader sentiment, reinforcing that the current focus remains implementation rather than convoking a fresh ecumenical council. The Synod on Synodality’s path toward a 2028 Ecclesial Assembly, combined with historian assessments that the Church is still absorbing Vatican II’s documents, further supports the overwhelming “No” consensus at 91.3% implied probability. While a surprise consistory announcement or acute global crisis could theoretically shift momentum, no verified signals or calendar entries point to such a development before year-end.