Steve Witkoff leads at 82% implied probability in trader consensus for a physical diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30, followed closely by JD Vance and Jared Kushner at 75% each, reflecting expectations of a second round of US-Iran talks after marathon indirect negotiations collapsed in Islamabad on April 11-12. US Vice President Vance headed the American delegation alongside Witkoff and Kushner, facing Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, but no direct face-to-face occurred amid disputes over nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. The US-initiated port blockade on April 12 has intensified pressure for de-escalation, with diplomats discussing Pakistan-hosted follow-ups; President Trump trails at 7%, given his envoy's prominence over a personal summit. A related market prices 89% odds of any US-Iran diplomatic meeting by the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
$109,769 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
Дональд Трамп
8%
Джей Ди Ванс
76%
Марко Рубио
9%
Джаред Кушнер
80%
Стив Уиткофф
82%
$109,769 Объем
Дональд Трамп
$90,978 Объем
8%
Джей Ди Ванс
$7,512 Объем
76%
Марко Рубио
$5,208 Объем
9%
Джаред Кушнер
$2,441 Объем
80%
Стив Уиткофф
$3,762 Объем
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Steve Witkoff leads at 82% implied probability in trader consensus for a physical diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30, followed closely by JD Vance and Jared Kushner at 75% each, reflecting expectations of a second round of US-Iran talks after marathon indirect negotiations collapsed in Islamabad on April 11-12. US Vice President Vance headed the American delegation alongside Witkoff and Kushner, facing Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, but no direct face-to-face occurred amid disputes over nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. The US-initiated port blockade on April 12 has intensified pressure for de-escalation, with diplomats discussing Pakistan-hosted follow-ups; President Trump trails at 7%, given his envoy's prominence over a personal summit. A related market prices 89% odds of any US-Iran diplomatic meeting by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Объем
$109,769Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Steve Witkoff leads at 82% implied probability in trader consensus for a physical diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30, followed closely by JD Vance and Jared Kushner at 75% each, reflecting expectations of a second round of US-Iran talks after marathon indirect negotiations collapsed in Islamabad on April 11-12. US Vice President Vance headed the American delegation alongside Witkoff and Kushner, facing Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, but no direct face-to-face occurred amid disputes over nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. The US-initiated port blockade on April 12 has intensified pressure for de-escalation, with diplomats discussing Pakistan-hosted follow-ups; President Trump trails at 7%, given his envoy's prominence over a personal summit. A related market prices 89% odds of any US-Iran diplomatic meeting by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$109,769Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Steve Witkoff leads at 82% implied probability in trader consensus for a physical diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30, followed closely by JD Vance and Jared Kushner at 75% each, reflecting expectations of a second round of US-Iran talks after marathon indirect negotiations collapsed in Islamabad on April 11-12. US Vice President Vance headed the American delegation alongside Witkoff and Kushner, facing Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, but no direct face-to-face occurred amid disputes over nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. The US-initiated port blockade on April 12 has intensified pressure for de-escalation, with diplomats discussing Pakistan-hosted follow-ups; President Trump trails at 7%, given his envoy's prominence over a personal summit. A related market prices 89% odds of any US-Iran diplomatic meeting by the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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