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Геополитика·Карта Украины

Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...?

Market icon
Геополитика·Карта Украины

Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...?

НОВОЕ
30 апр. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$5,107 Объем

Polymarket

April 30

$520 Объем

4%

May 31

$4,588 Объем

26%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske1.png Intersection Location in Huliaipilske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske2.png Huliaipilske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/MyKqBywUGcMihVGJ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces intensified their offensive toward Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast starting November 2025, entering parts of the village in late December after Ukrainian territorial units retreated, but failed to secure full control amid disputed claims and Ukrainian counterattacks. By February 2026, Ukrainian advances, aided by disruptions to Russian communications via Starlink terminal jamming, stalled Moscow's momentum, shifting to positional fighting with gray zones on DeepState and ISW maps. Recent clashes southeast of Huliaipilske on April 10 involved Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian positions, while March saw over 120 daily engagements in the sector—one of the war's hottest fronts. Traders assess capture probabilities based on incremental Russian probing versus Ukrainian defenses, with U.S. aid flows and spring weather as key upcoming variables.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske1.png

Intersection Location in Huliaipilske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske2.png

Huliaipilske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/MyKqBywUGcMihVGJ8

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Объем
$5,107
Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 13, 2026, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske1.png Intersection Location in Huliaipilske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske2.png Huliaipilske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/MyKqBywUGcMihVGJ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske1.png Intersection Location in Huliaipilske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske2.png Huliaipilske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/MyKqBywUGcMihVGJ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces intensified their offensive toward Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast starting November 2025, entering parts of the village in late December after Ukrainian territorial units retreated, but failed to secure full control amid disputed claims and Ukrainian counterattacks. By February 2026, Ukrainian advances, aided by disruptions to Russian communications via Starlink terminal jamming, stalled Moscow's momentum, shifting to positional fighting with gray zones on DeepState and ISW maps. Recent clashes southeast of Huliaipilske on April 10 involved Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian positions, while March saw over 120 daily engagements in the sector—one of the war's hottest fronts. Traders assess capture probabilities based on incremental Russian probing versus Ukrainian defenses, with U.S. aid flows and spring weather as key upcoming variables.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske1.png

Intersection Location in Huliaipilske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske2.png

Huliaipilske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/MyKqBywUGcMihVGJ8

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Объем
$5,107
Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 13, 2026, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske1.png Intersection Location in Huliaipilske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske2.png Huliaipilske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/MyKqBywUGcMihVGJ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «May 31» с 26%, за ним следует «April 30» с 4%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 26¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 26%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Apr 13, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

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Текущий фаворит для «Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...?» — «May 31» с 26%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 26%. Следующий ближайший исход — «April 30» с 4%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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