Netherlands and Japan opened Group F with a 2-2 draw on June 14, as the Dutch twice led only for Japan to equalize late through Daichi Kamada’s 88th-minute header. That result underscores Japan’s counter-attacking threat and late-game resilience while leaving both sides with one point and identical goal differences. Netherlands retain the highest implied probability at 47.5 percent thanks to greater squad depth, set-piece strength, and historical pedigree as three-time runners-up. Japan sit at 28.5 percent on the back of strong pre-tournament form and the ability to trouble higher-ranked opponents. Sweden (18.5 percent), managed by Graham Potter, and defensively solid Tunisia (5.0 percent) trail, with their June 14-15 matchup and remaining fixtures likely to clarify who challenges for second place.