Escalating US-Iran tensions, including a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz announced in early April 2026, have prompted Iranian officials and Houthi allies to threaten closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a vital chokepoint handling 12% of global trade and significant oil flows—driving trader caution in Polymarket sentiment. While no full closure has occurred, with recent ship-tracking data showing 279 vessels transiting since mid-April amid sporadic attacks, ongoing Red Sea disruptions have sustained freight rate hikes of 25-35% on Asia-Europe routes and added 10-12 days to transit times via Cape of Good Hope rerouting. Oil market volatility persists, with Brent crude sensitive to further escalation; key catalysts include Houthi response deadlines and potential multinational naval interventions by late April.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วBab el-Mandeb ช่องแคบปิดอย่างมีประสิทธิภาพโดย...?
Bab el-Mandeb ช่องแคบปิดอย่างมีประสิทธิภาพโดย...?
$1,456,656 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
30 เมษายน
6%
31 พฤษภาคม
16%
$1,456,656 ปริมาณ
30 เมษายน
$1,073,227 ปริมาณ
6%
31 พฤษภาคม
$53,103 ปริมาณ
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Escalating US-Iran tensions, including a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz announced in early April 2026, have prompted Iranian officials and Houthi allies to threaten closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a vital chokepoint handling 12% of global trade and significant oil flows—driving trader caution in Polymarket sentiment. While no full closure has occurred, with recent ship-tracking data showing 279 vessels transiting since mid-April amid sporadic attacks, ongoing Red Sea disruptions have sustained freight rate hikes of 25-35% on Asia-Europe routes and added 10-12 days to transit times via Cape of Good Hope rerouting. Oil market volatility persists, with Brent crude sensitive to further escalation; key catalysts include Houthi response deadlines and potential multinational naval interventions by late April.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,456,656วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Escalating US-Iran tensions, including a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz announced in early April 2026, have prompted Iranian officials and Houthi allies to threaten closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a vital chokepoint handling 12% of global trade and significant oil flows—driving trader caution in Polymarket sentiment. While no full closure has occurred, with recent ship-tracking data showing 279 vessels transiting since mid-April amid sporadic attacks, ongoing Red Sea disruptions have sustained freight rate hikes of 25-35% on Asia-Europe routes and added 10-12 days to transit times via Cape of Good Hope rerouting. Oil market volatility persists, with Brent crude sensitive to further escalation; key catalysts include Houthi response deadlines and potential multinational naval interventions by late April.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,456,656วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating US-Iran tensions, including a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz announced in early April 2026, have prompted Iranian officials and Houthi allies to threaten closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a vital chokepoint handling 12% of global trade and significant oil flows—driving trader caution in Polymarket sentiment. While no full closure has occurred, with recent ship-tracking data showing 279 vessels transiting since mid-April amid sporadic attacks, ongoing Red Sea disruptions have sustained freight rate hikes of 25-35% on Asia-Europe routes and added 10-12 days to transit times via Cape of Good Hope rerouting. Oil market volatility persists, with Brent crude sensitive to further escalation; key catalysts include Houthi response deadlines and potential multinational naval interventions by late April.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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