Heightened geopolitical risks from the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict and fragile ceasefire have kept Bab el-Mandeb Strait shipping under pressure, with Houthi threats of disruption or closure serving as leverage tied to escalation in Lebanon or against Iran. As of late May 2026, daily transits remain well below pre-2023 levels after prior attacks prompted rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, lifting container freight rates 25-35% above benchmarks and war-risk insurance premiums sharply higher. The strait handles roughly 12% of global trade and key oil flows, amplifying potential impacts on Brent crude benchmarks and supply chains if Houthis resume attacks. No commercial vessel strikes have occurred since October 2025, reflecting strategic restraint amid diplomatic talks, though any breakdown in U.S.-Iran negotiations or Gulf state involvement could rapidly shift dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วBab el-Mandeb ช่องแคบปิดอย่างมีประสิทธิภาพโดย...?
Bab el-Mandeb ช่องแคบปิดอย่างมีประสิทธิภาพโดย...?
$3,547,566 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
31 พฤษภาคม
<1%
June 30
10%
September 30
20%
$3,547,566 ปริมาณ
31 พฤษภาคม
$1,296,566 ปริมาณ
<1%
June 30
$218,666 ปริมาณ
10%
September 30
$50,393 ปริมาณ
20%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Heightened geopolitical risks from the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict and fragile ceasefire have kept Bab el-Mandeb Strait shipping under pressure, with Houthi threats of disruption or closure serving as leverage tied to escalation in Lebanon or against Iran. As of late May 2026, daily transits remain well below pre-2023 levels after prior attacks prompted rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, lifting container freight rates 25-35% above benchmarks and war-risk insurance premiums sharply higher. The strait handles roughly 12% of global trade and key oil flows, amplifying potential impacts on Brent crude benchmarks and supply chains if Houthis resume attacks. No commercial vessel strikes have occurred since October 2025, reflecting strategic restraint amid diplomatic talks, though any breakdown in U.S.-Iran negotiations or Gulf state involvement could rapidly shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,547,566วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Heightened geopolitical risks from the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict and fragile ceasefire have kept Bab el-Mandeb Strait shipping under pressure, with Houthi threats of disruption or closure serving as leverage tied to escalation in Lebanon or against Iran. As of late May 2026, daily transits remain well below pre-2023 levels after prior attacks prompted rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, lifting container freight rates 25-35% above benchmarks and war-risk insurance premiums sharply higher. The strait handles roughly 12% of global trade and key oil flows, amplifying potential impacts on Brent crude benchmarks and supply chains if Houthis resume attacks. No commercial vessel strikes have occurred since October 2025, reflecting strategic restraint amid diplomatic talks, though any breakdown in U.S.-Iran negotiations or Gulf state involvement could rapidly shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,547,566วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened geopolitical risks from the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict and fragile ceasefire have kept Bab el-Mandeb Strait shipping under pressure, with Houthi threats of disruption or closure serving as leverage tied to escalation in Lebanon or against Iran. As of late May 2026, daily transits remain well below pre-2023 levels after prior attacks prompted rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, lifting container freight rates 25-35% above benchmarks and war-risk insurance premiums sharply higher. The strait handles roughly 12% of global trade and key oil flows, amplifying potential impacts on Brent crude benchmarks and supply chains if Houthis resume attacks. No commercial vessel strikes have occurred since October 2025, reflecting strategic restraint amid diplomatic talks, though any breakdown in U.S.-Iran negotiations or Gulf state involvement could rapidly shift dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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