Magnus Carlsen enters the Esports World Cup Chess 2026 finals in Paris as the clear market leader at 63.5% implied probability, reflecting his status as the defending 2025 champion and highest-rated grandmaster. He secured direct qualification as title defender and carries strong recent form from prior EWC events and circuit play. Main challengers Alireza Firouzja and Hikaru Nakamura, both at 13.5%, represent Team Falcons and bring elite speed-chess credentials plus recent head-to-head competitiveness against the Norwegian. Lower-priced contenders including Nodirbek Abdusattorov (12.5%), Denis Lazavik (6.0%), and Arjun Erigaisi (5.4%) qualified via circuit points or SCC results, with their probabilities shaped by rating gaps, historical performance in rapid/blitz formats, and the expanded 22-player field featuring a new play-in stage. The closely bunched mid-tier names at 50% capture broader uncertainty around bracket progression and potential upsets in the knockout structure.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMagnus Carlsen 64%
Alireza Firouzja 14%
Hikaru Nakamura 14%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov 13%
$12,602 ปริมาณ
$12,602 ปริมาณ
Magnus Carlsen
64%
Alireza Firouzja
14%
Hikaru Nakamura
14%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
13%
Aleksej Sarana
9%
Denis Lazavik
5%
Hans Moke Niemann
5%
Arjun Erigaisi
5%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
1%
Andrey Esipenko
<1%
Nihal Sarin
<1%
Pranesh Munirethinam
<1%
Sina Movahed
<1%
Benjamin Bok
<1%
Wei Yi
<1%
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
<1%
Magnus Carlsen 64%
Alireza Firouzja 14%
Hikaru Nakamura 14%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov 13%
$12,602 ปริมาณ
$12,602 ปริมาณ
Magnus Carlsen
64%
Alireza Firouzja
14%
Hikaru Nakamura
14%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
13%
Aleksej Sarana
9%
Denis Lazavik
5%
Hans Moke Niemann
5%
Arjun Erigaisi
5%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
1%
Andrey Esipenko
<1%
Nihal Sarin
<1%
Pranesh Munirethinam
<1%
Sina Movahed
<1%
Benjamin Bok
<1%
Wei Yi
<1%
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
<1%
If this tournament is postponed after August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, the Esports World Cup (https://esportsworldcup.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 11, 2026, 6:32 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If this tournament is postponed after August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, the Esports World Cup (https://esportsworldcup.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Magnus Carlsen enters the Esports World Cup Chess 2026 finals in Paris as the clear market leader at 63.5% implied probability, reflecting his status as the defending 2025 champion and highest-rated grandmaster. He secured direct qualification as title defender and carries strong recent form from prior EWC events and circuit play. Main challengers Alireza Firouzja and Hikaru Nakamura, both at 13.5%, represent Team Falcons and bring elite speed-chess credentials plus recent head-to-head competitiveness against the Norwegian. Lower-priced contenders including Nodirbek Abdusattorov (12.5%), Denis Lazavik (6.0%), and Arjun Erigaisi (5.4%) qualified via circuit points or SCC results, with their probabilities shaped by rating gaps, historical performance in rapid/blitz formats, and the expanded 22-player field featuring a new play-in stage. The closely bunched mid-tier names at 50% capture broader uncertainty around bracket progression and potential upsets in the knockout structure.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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