Recent polls show the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks remains exceptionally close, with Yes support at 51.3% and No at 48.7% in the latest Maskína survey, narrowing from earlier leads of 4–6 points. Primary drivers include concerns over fisheries control and national sovereignty, which have historically blocked progress since talks froze in 2013, alongside arguments that membership could stabilize Iceland’s currency and address cost-of-living pressures amid U.S. tariffs and regional security shifts. The vote decides only whether negotiations restart, with any eventual accession treaty requiring a separate referendum. Traders price the narrowest margins highest because turnout, undecided voters, and last-minute campaign dynamics on fishing rights could determine the final spread in either direction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วYes <3% 40%
No <3% 40%
Yes 3–6% 36%
No 6–9% 25%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
23%
Yes 12–15%
8%
Yes 9–12%
24%
Yes 6–9%
25%
Yes 3–6%
36%
Yes <3%
40%
No <3%
40%
No 3–6%
24%
No 6–9%
25%
No 9–12%
25%
No 12–15%
22%
No 15%+
11%
Yes <3% 40%
No <3% 40%
Yes 3–6% 36%
No 6–9% 25%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
$70 ปริมาณ
23%
Yes 12–15%
$63 ปริมาณ
8%
Yes 9–12%
$0 ปริมาณ
24%
Yes 6–9%
$0 ปริมาณ
25%
Yes 3–6%
$0 ปริมาณ
36%
Yes <3%
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
No <3%
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
No 3–6%
$0 ปริมาณ
24%
No 6–9%
$0 ปริมาณ
25%
No 9–12%
$6 ปริมาณ
25%
No 12–15%
$70 ปริมาณ
22%
No 15%+
$0 ปริมาณ
11%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polls show the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks remains exceptionally close, with Yes support at 51.3% and No at 48.7% in the latest Maskína survey, narrowing from earlier leads of 4–6 points. Primary drivers include concerns over fisheries control and national sovereignty, which have historically blocked progress since talks froze in 2013, alongside arguments that membership could stabilize Iceland’s currency and address cost-of-living pressures amid U.S. tariffs and regional security shifts. The vote decides only whether negotiations restart, with any eventual accession treaty requiring a separate referendum. Traders price the narrowest margins highest because turnout, undecided voters, and last-minute campaign dynamics on fishing rights could determine the final spread in either direction.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$209วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polls show the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks remains exceptionally close, with Yes support at 51.3% and No at 48.7% in the latest Maskína survey, narrowing from earlier leads of 4–6 points. Primary drivers include concerns over fisheries control and national sovereignty, which have historically blocked progress since talks froze in 2013, alongside arguments that membership could stabilize Iceland’s currency and address cost-of-living pressures amid U.S. tariffs and regional security shifts. The vote decides only whether negotiations restart, with any eventual accession treaty requiring a separate referendum. Traders price the narrowest margins highest because turnout, undecided voters, and last-minute campaign dynamics on fishing rights could determine the final spread in either direction.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$209วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks remains exceptionally close, with Yes support at 51.3% and No at 48.7% in the latest Maskína survey, narrowing from earlier leads of 4–6 points. Primary drivers include concerns over fisheries control and national sovereignty, which have historically blocked progress since talks froze in 2013, alongside arguments that membership could stabilize Iceland’s currency and address cost-of-living pressures amid U.S. tariffs and regional security shifts. The vote decides only whether negotiations restart, with any eventual accession treaty requiring a separate referendum. Traders price the narrowest margins highest because turnout, undecided voters, and last-minute campaign dynamics on fishing rights could determine the final spread in either direction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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