Group A4 features Portugal, Denmark, Norway and Wales in a balanced round-robin where each side plays six matches starting 24 September. Portugal enters as defending champions with elite squad depth and attacking options, yet the market prices reflect Norway’s rising trajectory fueled by Erling Haaland’s form, Denmark’s organized defensive structure and consistent results, and Wales’ improved depth after recent qualification campaigns. With no matches completed and all teams level on points, head-to-head history, home advantage in key fixtures, and current international form create roughly even implied probabilities. Minor roster developments or early results could quickly shift the tight consensus reflected in current pricing.