Traders reflect near-certain consensus that the United States will not bring federal charges against former Cuban leader Raul Castro, driven by the complete absence of any announcements, investigations, or statements from the Department of Justice or other federal authorities. His status as a retired head of state, combined with longstanding diplomatic relations and lack of active legal proceedings, reinforces this positioning. While the implied probability accounts for these structural barriers, unforeseen shifts such as new evidence from international bodies, major changes in U.S. foreign policy priorities, or administration directives could still introduce limited uncertainty before any resolution.