Virginia voters approved the redistricting referendum constitutional amendment in the April 21, 2026, special election by a 51.7% to 48.3% margin—3.4 percentage points—aligning precisely with trader consensus on a 3-6% pass victory and reflecting pre-election polls showing slim Yes leads around 52-47 amid high turnout exceeding 3 million ballots. Strong Democratic performance in Northern Virginia suburbs offset Republican strength in rural areas and Southside, consistent with 2025 gubernatorial results. The Supreme Court of Virginia's 4-3 ruling today nullifying the referendum for procedural flaws preserves current 6-5 Democratic congressional maps but leaves the recorded vote margin intact for market resolution. Late provisional ballot adjustments or rare recounts represent minimal remaining risks to this outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วVirginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Pass 3-6% 100.0%
Pass 15%+ <1%
Pass 12-15% <1%
Pass 9-12% <1%
$646,908 ปริมาณ
$646,908 ปริมาณ
Apr 21, 2026
Pass 15%+
No
Pass 12-15%
No
Pass 9-12%
No
Pass 6-9%
No
Pass 3-6%
Yes
Pass <3%
No
No Pass
No
Pass 3-6% 100.0%
Pass 15%+ <1%
Pass 12-15% <1%
Pass 9-12% <1%
$646,908 ปริมาณ
$646,908 ปริมาณ
Apr 21, 2026
Pass 15%+
$17,389 ปริมาณ
No
Pass 12-15%
$22,315 ปริมาณ
No
Pass 9-12%
$45,358 ปริมาณ
No
Pass 6-9%
$84,095 ปริมาณ
No
Pass 3-6%
$258,160 ปริมาณ
Yes
Pass <3%
$178,296 ปริมาณ
No
No Pass
$41,295 ปริมาณ
No
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Virginia voters approved the redistricting referendum constitutional amendment in the April 21, 2026, special election by a 51.7% to 48.3% margin—3.4 percentage points—aligning precisely with trader consensus on a 3-6% pass victory and reflecting pre-election polls showing slim Yes leads around 52-47 amid high turnout exceeding 3 million ballots. Strong Democratic performance in Northern Virginia suburbs offset Republican strength in rural areas and Southside, consistent with 2025 gubernatorial results. The Supreme Court of Virginia's 4-3 ruling today nullifying the referendum for procedural flaws preserves current 6-5 Democratic congressional maps but leaves the recorded vote margin intact for market resolution. Late provisional ballot adjustments or rare recounts represent minimal remaining risks to this outcome.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$646,908วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Virginia voters approved the redistricting referendum constitutional amendment in the April 21, 2026, special election by a 51.7% to 48.3% margin—3.4 percentage points—aligning precisely with trader consensus on a 3-6% pass victory and reflecting pre-election polls showing slim Yes leads around 52-47 amid high turnout exceeding 3 million ballots. Strong Democratic performance in Northern Virginia suburbs offset Republican strength in rural areas and Southside, consistent with 2025 gubernatorial results. The Supreme Court of Virginia's 4-3 ruling today nullifying the referendum for procedural flaws preserves current 6-5 Democratic congressional maps but leaves the recorded vote margin intact for market resolution. Late provisional ballot adjustments or rare recounts represent minimal remaining risks to this outcome.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$646,908วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Virginia voters approved the redistricting referendum constitutional amendment in the April 21, 2026, special election by a 51.7% to 48.3% margin—3.4 percentage points—aligning precisely with trader consensus on a 3-6% pass victory and reflecting pre-election polls showing slim Yes leads around 52-47 amid high turnout exceeding 3 million ballots. Strong Democratic performance in Northern Virginia suburbs offset Republican strength in rural areas and Southside, consistent with 2025 gubernatorial results. The Supreme Court of Virginia's 4-3 ruling today nullifying the referendum for procedural flaws preserves current 6-5 Democratic congressional maps but leaves the recorded vote margin intact for market resolution. Late provisional ballot adjustments or rare recounts represent minimal remaining risks to this outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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