Neymar's calf injury, a grade-2 issue sustained in mid-May with Santos, has sidelined him from Brazil's opening 2026 World Cup matches against Morocco and likely Haiti, with medical staff prioritizing full recovery to avoid setbacks. Recent training updates show the 34-year-old advancing to individual pitch work and brief group sessions in New Jersey, aligning with coach Carlo Ancelotti's emphasis on his technical quality, experience, and leadership value in the Seleção squad. Traders' 86.5% implied probability for a Yes outcome reflects confidence in his expected availability during the knockout rounds, supported by the team's decision to retain him rather than seek a replacement and historical precedent of cautious management for star players in major tournaments.