Recent polling shows the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains closely contested at roughly 51-49, spurring intensive mobilization by both camps that typically elevates participation in Icelandic votes. Historical patterns from recent Althingi and presidential elections near 80% turnout, combined with early voting underway since late July and public debate over fisheries, currency stability, and sovereignty, anchor trader expectations in the 70-85% range. The narrow margin and single-question format keep adjacent turnout bins tightly bunched, as modest shifts in undecided voters or regional differences could alter overall engagement without changing the outcome. Late-campaign intensity, weather on referendum day, or final turnout projections could widen separation among the leading intervals.